oh, my mistake, You are right, the chances of any commodity doubling in price is almost always better than the chance of a stock doubling in price, and cotton in 2010 proves it.
I would've thought the chances of a particular stock (from the universe of stocks) doubling is a lot, lot lower than the chances of a particular commodity (from the universe of commodities) doubling. Think about it, there are thousands of stocks. The ones that double (assuming we're not talking decades) are most likely usually penny stocks and if you want to bet on those...well maybe you should be in a casino. Commodities on the other hand...come on, you can make (and lose) a fortune in commodities *because of* the leverage involved. You can't escape it. Unless you trade the ETFs.
that's why I said it is difficult in commodities without leverage. But you are correct, picking one of the many stocks that go from 20 to 40 out of the thousands is also difficult. Oil is more likely to hit 200 before ES hits 2400, but before that happens many stocks may go from 20 to 40, it happens all the time.
Oil will follow the Dow/SP500. It only makes ECONOMIC sense. Strong Dow, Strong economies; The latter means higher oil demand. If this reverses, LOOK OUT BELOW. Oil to 80. Not much lower.
how much less oil will you use if Dow goes below 10000? Price may go up and down with SPX but not demand. Price is just a guess what demand will be. Dow could go down because CL goes too high. But selling stocks will not neccesarily make the price of oil drop. If oil goes lower stocks may go higher because of lower fuel costs.
World economy is on the brink of collapse; new source of alternative energy NG becoming abundant. How can it be? may be the print press will do it.
Everything from a statistical standpoint is LOOSELY correlated i.e. r-squared under 0.5. Use common sense and long term trends. Dow down: could mean a weak economy. weak economy: could mean lower oil demand. Got it ? There are no "definites" in this business. If there were, we'd all be millionaires.