when you shift time frames in a discussion, you're basically hoping upon hope, dreaming, wishing. When you're own capital is on the line, those are some activities best left for after the market closes and you're away from the desk. keeping in context, the only picture that buying breakouts works within is a bull rush or bear rush, not sideways or slow trending markets. There has to be indication that the breakout is upon strength, and that has to be as clear as the breakout itself. Flag pole, triangles both assending and descending and other chart patterns are just too weak to use, although most shops teach these, and as a result many traders learn the hard way that they need to be smarter than their teachers, to ensure that their money remains such and actually grows.... gee, who ever thought the fight was a 360degree battle?
The President is going on vacation in Texas for a month starting now. I know he is dropping in here (Tucson) for a moment to make his annual fire disaster trip but that will not screw up the market at all. We might get some more mormal market actionfor a while with an absence of anomolies from lala land.
There are successful strategies for support and resistance breakouts. Here is what we use. http://www.trade-ideas.com/Glossary/Support_and_Resistance.html The nice thing about using this is that you can apply both strategies. Sometimes you can buy the breakout while another time you can fade it.
Try this... 1. Divide today's average true range by the average true range of the past seven trading days. We'll call it Ratio1. 2. Divide the average true range of the last two trading days by the 7-day ATR again, e.g., Ratio2. 3. If both ratios are less than a certain factor, e.g. 0.85, then the next day qualifies as a "breakout" day. 4. Use an opening range in the first 15 minutes (maybe even 30) to define your risk. The smaller the range, the better, e.g., a range that is less than 35% of the ATR. 5. On a break of the range, plan to cover at a target that is approximately 100% of the ATR. This model works on the expectation that clusters of NR days are followed by clusters of WR days. The simplest method is alternating days. Also, apply filters such as ADX and historical volatility to discard non-trending and non-volatile instruments. PTR
this thread is pretty useful. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&threadid=18626 The method worked for me, don't use it any more because I enter these trades sooner now, but it is a good one to get you started.
SoCal thanks for the link. Pound' that's a very reasonable method. I have not been trading NR's this year but watch them when I see them. Regardless of the recent "testing" on ET, they work. One of the problems with the testing is that it presumed a hold till the end of the day thing, because it was looking for a trend day. However, I maintain, as some posts lately have also, that the skill of the trader has to come in somewhere. Using a sound entry as you suggest Pound' should regularly put the trader into a nice profit opportunity, whether it is 100% of the ATR or another means, the skill of the trader must be used to exit.