Out of interest, what % of capital are you short in ZB? I mean how much face value ZB relative to your account size. Just wanna get a comparison. I'm not heavily short, just a medium position, but starting to feel I should really go to town a bit on this one.
well its not as bad as it sounds i exaggerate at the peak i was short 1 ZB for every 30k of capital (when it was around 123) but it was a LOT of contracts
you guys all gonna let this run for the next week? or anyone taking partial profits? Im inclined to let it run to 115, but maybe im greedy
Yup that's a pretty big position I'm just 100% short. I reckon 110 at least and in all probability we will hit 103 before this move is done. Kinda reminds me of 1998 - whenever the ZB gets into the 120s it really tanks hard once the move ends.
was going to start a 'tbond reversal' thread until i discovered this one - which i haven't read thru and am not a bond trader but . . . although the H&S began in 2003, i was thinking the bonds will run-up for 2, maybe 3 months before the reversal begins with increases to the ffr in the new year was wondering if the fed may yet lower the rate again depending on the results of the congressional 'rescue package' plus there's the election, new administration and if it changes to democrat that might mean additional changes ??? remaining meetings: October 28-29 and December 16
wow look at that chart one-way traffic since 1980s but it sure looks top'ish now the chart makes no sense really when you think about it..... in 1992 fed funds target rate dropped all the way to 3% but 30 year ZB was 90 to 100 fast forward to 2007, fed funds rate is 5% but 30 year ZB is 105 to 115 has no business being up here.... defying gravity
see how Paulson waited till his boys (GS) were getting hit? MS just a beneficiary of the GOLD-MAN bailout! He could have saved Merrill and Lehman but he didn't! If there is one thing to learn is this world it's not "don't f%ck with the Je-sus," -big labowski. It's "don't f%ck with the Gold... man!!!!!!!!"
FWIW in these times the best thing one can do is to stick with fundamentals and what s/he knows for sure. is there going to be inflation? we do not know. Deflation due to credit crunch a la japan style? we do not know. what we know for sure is that treasury is going to issue 700b in securities which will go at least partly to the public. therefore rates must go up. (mortgage purchases will have to be funded even when there may not be ultimately any loss to the taxpayer) which maturities the most? difficult to say. if crude stays below $100 then 30y is the best value bet - otherwise the belly of the curve offers better values. interesting times - good luck with trading/investing.