Quote from Uncle HO- "If spooz go low, yields go up, usually." yields go UP when Fixed income sells so you are saying spooz go low and fixed income go low at the same time? That is wrong if spooz go low yields go down as the curve rallies. If 7 does not hold 118.305 is coming.
I hope all of you shorted it and made bank. If you weren't on it you missed it. Sold off a little more than I thought to 24 ish area then bounced.
I covered my 10yr shorts at 119'01.5. I'm stayin outta these guys for a while. Maybe I will daytrade it lightly, but I don't think you can start shorting this thing any time soon. My opinion has changed and I don't think we've seen the worst yet. Usually when i'm buying these, you should be shorting .
Uncle HO- I was of the opinion as well that the notes/bonds were heading lower last week (I thought spooz would test 1380 and fail but didn't make it over 1361) but today was quarter end and a lot people had to get their books in alignment, we'll really see how NFP affects the equities and maybe some new direction will show itself. As of now the 10 yr and 30 yr seem to retrace whatever move they do in the morning this of course could end any day.
Great analysis!... especially after Paulson is going to collect more info also from hedge funds (that after all buy Tsy)..! they don't like all this regulation..
UBS write down of 19 billion, Lehman dilutes shares so let's rally spooz and kill fixed income, what? Expect the unexpected I guess!