Well my short last night didn't work out too well. Some serious buying was taking place last night. It didn't really blow up on me but more or less just kept pushing me farther in the red (and like always I had too many on lol). I still think the short trade is the smart trade but I see we are up overnight again.
YT-if the spooz keep getting hit no matter how much the curve wants to sell off people are taking risk off the table and that means putting $ in treasuries. Wait till spooz test 1275 again if they do and rally then short the long end as a trade you want to hold. Right now it is so volatile especially the ZB it can be up/down 2-3 handles in a short amount of time you don't want to be on the wrong side of that. If they go and hit new lows then don't be short the curve the "flight to quality" will be in effect and we see the 2 Yr. maybe hit 1.25% which I know is ridiculous but it is what it is.
I don't see us testing those lows anytime soon. I sold some bonds yesterday at 119'11 to add to my long-term short. I'm now short bonds and 10yrs at 118'17. I'm not trying to talk my position but I don't think we will see the spooz testing lows any time soon. I think we've seen the worst, for now, and its all downhill from here. My time frame on both of these trades are 2-3 months with profit targets of 114-115 in the bondo, and 112-113 in the 10yr. Any opinions on these long term shorts?
I would like to thank what ever Hedge Fund came out with the Lehman rumor that made ZB pop 12 ticks in 5 seconds when I was short you are awesome! I hope you get FU$KED on your Lehman shorts.
Big Resistance in ZN around 118.30, a break through that and we are set to test around 119.30 rather quickly. Market seemed to be rejecting higher prices around that level but Im going to need some conviction from the orderbook before I place shorts at that level (if given the chance tonight). The old saying "double tops always hold, tripple tops never do" rings in my head as I write this. If we can hold that resistance I think we are set to test around 118.03 and then around 117.27 Eurodollar also starting to look bearish for the week. A break through 97.71 sets us up for a test to 97.68 (bottom of range) and a break through .68 and we head to test 97.58 Good Luck Guys
Short 10yr 118.25 Orderbook has been selling into that price all night and finally broke it and now is nicely offered. Profit target is about 1 full point or so.