tell you what these are very tough markets...haven't made a dime in 3 weeks. The only days I can make money around here are fed/nfp days so you know what that means...Im gonna be 10k richer or poorer Friday. This trade you're witnessing right now is for the birds!
So I wonder what Ben Bernanke thinks of his latest QE2 effort? He did say the goal was to LOWER long term rates didn't he?
It's not clear what the exit strategy is here. Suppose 10 year yields back up another 1% to 4% in response to commodity inflation. Then what? (1) Print more money to double, quadruple,..etc their bets for the greater good of homeowners. (2) Withdraw liquidity to ward off inflation by selling off $1-2 Trillion of bond holdings at a loss? (3) Sit on their bond holdings until maturity and leave all the newly created money in the system, running the risk of currency collapse and hyperinflation? If long yields fall then no problem. But if not, which is it? (1), (2) or (3)?
well since i think the fed is in general a bunch of dumbasses and they are fighting to keep a bubble afloat- i assume they will go with (1) and double down until they are broken by the markets.
another day another stopped out day loss, wow ZB you really suck! after high put in sell 125.13 , 15 can't make money for 45 mins- scratch em. watch it go down to 125.00 buy em then stopped out thank you ZB- 125.02 bid at 124.22 awesome just awesome! P.S. also sell ZN at 123.09, 10 sit in heat for 30 mins then scratch or puke em. then mkt down to 122.24 awesome!
I don't know, I ain't a Fed guv'nor. It's a tough spot they're in. Personally, I wouldn't think rising commodity prices and money supply are by themselves necessarily inflationary. We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.