it was a reopening; it's 'normal' a low indirect; instead 2.44 as bid to cover ratio is good (above average last 5 auctions).
no - 15% is not normal! this was the lowest indirect bider participation this year at least (ok there were few bad auction in June but not since)
actually indirect % has been 12.7%; however you're correct, it's on more the weak side but this is a reopening and also at the end of the year: look for december 2004-05-06-07 results for a seasonal comparison.
However you want to do I would get short here I think it is over, buy puts, sell calls, sell futures. A lot of supply coming in Jan. P.S. That is if you have not blow out the last month (A lot of firms and people did!) wow! "Bondo" up 23 handles, cash bond up more than that! Two yr yield at 0.725% come on we are not Japan, yet! Another point Euro up 22 points not good for our Curve.
either way its going to be a hard sell off. with limited liquidity to get out and since when stuff hits the fan the book will become EMPTY (where have all the other market makers gone =\ ). will be fun to see the pain of someone pulling 800 lots and having the market eat it only to see them reload and keep pulling it down.
I shorted the 30yr bond futures on Friday and luckily it closed below where I am in (141 12/32). I entered a GTC B/E stop. [Though I feel I am on the right side of this I was too early shorting Corn and oil this year and they were resulted in losses.]
TLT...buying Jan downside and protecting w/ buys of the Jan 127/130 call spread...swinging for the fence on magnitude but worried about the pop over 130...