You mean like the PPT wouldn't let stocks fall too far? The size of the bond market is such that if enough people start running for the exits even the Fed won't be able to prop up the price. And from the looks of it, the long side of the bond trade has gotten pretty crowded near the top with amateurs, which always signals a major turnaround is close by.
Anyway, last I checked Fannie mae spreads were still gigantic.. http://www.efanniemae.com/syndicated/documents/mbs/apeprices//archives/cur30.html The Friday yield was something like 3.11 on the 30 yr. So thats around 185 basis points spread. Isn't the whole point to make mortgages affordable. I expect the fed to bring that spread back to 50-60bp. (thus the baseline mortgage rate under 4) I thought spread would move rather than the 30yr yield (which has no impact other than to make it easy for the fed govt to raise money on the cheap).
I'd be careful. I don't think any dips from this point are buyable until probably next summer. But that's just my opinion.
nice 18 tick move in ZN up on 20K futures, wtf? 123.06 to 123.245 I love how they trade size but don't show it.