Here´s a great link to a recent analysis from John Murphy, he compares the current situation with the last pre-war market from the first gulf war: http://www.trading-ideas.com/MarketCommentary/mc122202-1.asp
knowing how the market will react to war is impossible to know. it depends on the news. imagine if iraq was able to inflict some kind of heavy damage on us at some time during the war. so the pat answer that the market rallys when the war starts is silly.
you are not the ONLY person. perhaps the only OTHER person ! i learned a HARD lesson shorting on the day of the iraqi invasion in 1991. best, surfer
No, by "war" I do not mean 911. 911 was just the opposite. After 911 the markets were closed for many days, and when they reopened, fear dominated everything, and the markets went down for 4 straight days.
I mean 1/16/91 when Operation Desert Storm began. There were 10,000 sorties in 10 days, a tremendous show of force, optimism prevailed, and the markets went up and up, well, at least initially.