Any seed money for Crude Oil trading?

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by miniFORTUNE, Jun 17, 2012.

  1. Does any one knows if there is any seed money or Venture Capital for futures trading?
    I will sincerely appreciate any constructive suggestions in that direction.

    I wrote several strategies on NinjaTrader. Four of those work exceptionally well with the Crude Oil and the miniDOW. Two are price behavior only with no Indicators, none. The other 2 use 2 traditional indicators. I run them for the last four months on 3 laptops with incredible results.
    Ideally they should be run on individual servers for reliability, and that is where a lot of money is needed, plus the multiple license fee for NinjaTrader. Additionally, with Crude Oil I have in mind to be long a call in the money at all times. That is another $ 3000.00 a month. Many reasons for that, mainly in case, just in case (and I sincerely hope it will never happens) of any military conflict with Iran. Crude may shot up over $200 a barrel. Not because I want to make an extra $100.000.00 but just in case the server looses connection or happens to be short 1 contract (which I doubt) when that happens.

    My laptops do not run 24 hours six days a week, they hibernate, disconnect, etc. etc. (My Acer desktop finally gave up)

    Nevertheless, I like to include here some screen shots of the overall performance on the CL and YM for the last 12 months.
    Each Strategy runs on two different time frames, a fast one and a slower one. It trades a single contract per strategy and the P/L is net of commissions ($ 3.47 round turn) Obviously on massive trades the broker is willing to give very inexpensive rates.

    I understand that anybody could make fortunes on simulation trading. In my live trading (YM) I am behind for this year. I have to much fear and hesitation when clicking for entries and exits. I do not trade live Crude Oil yet. It is beyond my small risk capital.

    That is why I made my mind to use a server(s) to have the software enter the trades. Unless I am missing something, but when I am awake I see and hear my laptops announcing the trades and exiting the trades. It is amazing. These little machines have no fear. They just follow the instructions. Once in a while show losing days, but so far no losing weeks or months. I know, you will not believe the back testing results, you may think that they are fake, but they are achievable. I watch these little creatures every day. even if in real live trading there is a serious slipage, the results are unbelievable!

    If any body has a curiosity just PM me and I will set up a daily conference thru JOINME. I could have one laptop trading any of the strategies or time frame on simulation between 7:OO AM 11: AM PST
    The computer announces the entry and post the arrows (Buy or Short). Just few hours. After many years of trading one gets tired of looking at computer screens. JoinME is free for the attendant and they claim could accommodate up to 250 people. I never run any webinars, nor I have in mind to do so. I may have glitches due to my inexperience, if it works fine if not, my apologies. (Disregard the link on computer screens, i did not do it. Somebody is hacking these post, I noticed that when I previewed the post)

    The first screen shot is the overall performance of 4 strategies, each one with 2 different time frames . The other screen shot is a complete rundown of one of the strategies.

    Fear nothing. I am not selling anything nor have intentions to sell any of the strategies. They are very easy to write and work on most traditional indicators, plus there is fantastic support from NT. If I did it, any one can do it. Seriously!

    Now I will attach the files. I they are missing i will do another post immediately.

    Once again, if anybody knows of any Venture Capital that help traders, kindly, please let me know.


    PS I noticed this post only allows 1 Attachment. I will post again with another single attachement.
  2. The other attachment
  3. ocean5


    Why so many losing trades?
  4. Tons of losing trades when you run the computer 23 and 1/2 hours.
    They are time in the middle of the night when there is hardly any volume and maybe people trade on the bid and the ask. Also after 11: AM PST it is just a chop chop chop.
    However I leave the machines on, specially with CL this thing jumps or crashes at any given time.
  5. Are you buying on the ask and selling on the bid?
  6. Sorry, strategies re all negative.

    Unless you know what you do. Which is unlikely.

    * ET 3.47$ coimission, no splippage assumed. THat measn the best strat does 6.317 USD profit a trade - that smells like 1 tick. 1 tick profit means you have to be SUPER good with your sim.

    Which ninja is not. Did you account for proper slippage and the fact that NInja is not using the market stream at all for simulation? That even market replay is not good enough to simulate with that resolution due to them runnning 1 second timestamps? That backtest is totally screwed?

    You likely have a loss even in a proper simulator - if anything get your hands on some quality data and run it through a proper sim.

    But even then - this is not a good strat. 27 trades per hour is HFT level, and 1 tick needs SUPER good execution which you DO NOT HAVE IN CRUDE. Unless you can put up some guarantees that the numbers are correct and not just the next guy that has no clue how bad Ninja is normally - this is not worth trading.

    Did you validate? I.e. run against a proper real time feed for some months? How is the comparison against the backtest, in trade behavior? 100% Correlation? If not - you are dead.
  7. +1
  8. Hi: Total_keops and TetTecture.

    Thank you for the input.

    Yes there are MARKET orders and obviously I'm buying on the ask and selling on the bid. Some times in another laptop I try limit orders, like on last or bid, but usually I do not get a fill and the issue runs away.
    As far as fake data and NT issues, time stamp and all those things, probably you are correct when back testing.
    However, during trading hours I observe for months that the simulation data is exactly the same like the live set up.

    Maybe all the simulations and back testing are wrong, No wonder the returns are astronomical.

    My only believe is that if I had the stamina and discipline to click entries for 7 to 12 hours continuously I will be minting money with these strategies. As far as commissions, I know of a trader that pays $2 round turn only.

    Anyway, thank you for the eye opener, I appreciate it. If that is the case I hope there is no seed money or Venture Capital. I might lose it very fast. I will go ahead with my own small risk capital.

    Crude Oil have powerful swings that will erase, slipage, bad fills and more. Years ago when I was a commodities broker I use to place orders for clients on Crude Oil. I remember vividly the behavior of Crude, before Saddam Hussein invade Kuwait. These clients were paying $ 46 a round turn and orders were submitted via a vacuum tube... but they were making serious money.

    Thank you!
  9. I did not put a link on Saddam Hussein. Somebody is hacking this post.
  10. Shanb


    Looks decent. Profit factor of 1.4, looks like you have something that has a relatively low winning percentage but relatively large winners to account for that. Not amazing but solid from the metrics.

    Do you mind showing your max peak to trough drawdown? Do you know how correlated your returns are in terms of the short term and long term model?

    One simple thing you should do is some out of sample testing to confirm that this works in other time periods. The ranges and volatility in crude have been great the past couple months. Take your models and throw them into some out of sample data sets where ranges were smaller or the environment was different. If the edge is persistent then you have something there. My intuition tells me That you would have to adjust as conditions
    Change which IMO is the key to successful trading of any kind. Anyways good luck and post up the results of your testing If you do it(you should ;)
    #10     Jun 17, 2012