For all the naysayers: What do the numbers: 1.000, 1.618, .715, .233, .233 and .233 all have in common? Answer: They ALL lead to profit! How? I'll never tell this bunch of arrogant souls, that's for certain. Just because YOU have not thought of something, or merely because YOU have not discovered something different, does not mean that the entire world around you is destined to remain in the dark ages. Why all the negativity around here? Why such apparent jealousy? Why not simply be happy and inspired that somebody figured the darn thing out? Hate - is a very poor excuse for personal failure. Yes - ONE currency pair. Not two. Not three. No "arb." No triangles. No fluff. Just pure mathematics doing what pure mathematics likes to do. If you truly understood the data BEHIND the markets you trade, then no explanation would be necessary. But, clearly, because you have yet to understand the true nature of the data in the markets you trade, no explanation will EVER be enough. The Fibonacci Number Sequence as more "utility" in life that most people are aware of - that much is certain. I had to "tweak" the Fib numbers to get my results - what will YOU have to do to them to get yours? One currency pair. MANY children wrapped around their Mother - all leading to profit. That's about as much as I am going to give you. For those that actually read my first post, recall, I started out as derivatives trader - learning equity option strategies inside and out. So, when I got to the currency markets three years later, my brain was already wired for creative trade structuring. In the currency spot market, you don't have the same creative tool set to work with to physically structure trades the same way you can in the equity derivatives market. So, you will have to learn how to use Mathematics to formulate "creative" ideas for non-direction trades. Having a degree in Mathematics also helps - but is not necessary. What you really need, is an understanding of the dynamics of price behavior under all market conditions, so that you can know where and how to structure your trade profiles according to what the market is doing at any one particular time, while transforming conventional "risk" into a TVM proposition, instead of the "traditional" loss of capital. But, I'm sure the experts here already knew that.
funny that some of the biggest prop fx guys trade binaries and one-touch all the time. Had an fx old-timer sitting close to me for quite some time, one of the most profitable guys in the group, he traded fx options very frequently and surely not at 600bp spreads ;-) You know a lot but you surely dont know it all, and the rest you dont know you may be better advised to simply shut up. And your 600bp spreads on binaries you pulled out of your grandma's ass but it surely does not reflect reality. Stick to your equity options you already got lost on index options and look even more stupid on fx options.
Some of you people are real fucking assholes. I ask a simple question about where I might look, or what I should read up on so that I could perhaps actually participate in what the thread has evolved into and you send me a link on committing suicide. Go fuck yourself Atticus.
LOL, Speak for yourself.... The mercats go up the mecrats go down and thats it, that's all there is. Everything in between is just bollox.
The point was that binaries have no place in triangular arbitrage as a price-taker, not whether it's an active market, you fool. The OTC FX barrier markets are much larger than Worldwide listed equity vol, probably by a factor of five. I trade touch-markets and it's routine for me to hedge/replicate lookbacks with touches, as well as trading Euro-range and DNTs/touches outright. I trade >$1MM in payouts in touch markets on a weekly basis. Have you ever actually traded this market? The EURUSD one week 1.4200 binary was 47/53 yesterday afternoon via UBS with spot pinned [pick-'em] That's a 600-bp market. Don't believe it? Call UBS or DB for a quote. The anyoption.com idiocy is pricing the risk-reversal at 20-wide.
Bro, don't waste your time on this thread anymore, you have some Vix-Arb movies to do! Tell coach that last vid he produced is kinda ghey.
I've heard worse, thanks. The point was that that Veyron was talking out of his ass when comparing his Fibonacci BS to triangular arbitrage. "Elitist Trader" asked him about TA: Quote from Elitist Trader: Sounds like the holy grail.... So are you trading tri-arb? Pretty darn close. Nope, I'm using a proprietary Fibonacci derivative that wraps multiple positions around the same pair - yes, only one pair! The argument concerned adding binary options to a triangular-arbitrage. It's not something that can be done on the buy-side. Sell-side/price-makers can convert option-flow into triangular-arbitrage, but it's not the first or even second consideration. It's possible for the dealer, but highly improbable. The discussion centered on Sakhter mentioning the possibility of Veyron utilizing binary ops in his trading... and triangular arb was added (not by me). Way off-topic. As it stands, Veyron is trading Fibonacci garbage at zero risk! Taleb has a basic primer on binaries/exotics in Dynamic Hedging. Stick to the definitions and equivalence: http://www.amazon.com/Dynamic-Hedging-Managing-Vanilla-Options/dp/0471152803 The suicide-link was meant to convey that adding binaries was suicide. I have nothing against you personally.