This Rally's Got the Lifespan of a Snowflake By James J. Cramer 01/02/2003 10:54 AM EST Click here for more stories by James J. Cramer cramer is a wonderful indicator. you just have to fade him. hes super negitive this morning. this rally could have legs.
fade worked perfectly. cramer was negitive already thursday. kass was on kudlow and cramer friday night and said he liked nothing long and he was short(ouch). thats what you get on real money pro, a bunch of guys no smarter than the average trader.
cramer had a piece in new yorker, where he basically said he never listened to blodget on INSP... although if you read his winners of the world piece, he LOVED INSP. and, he was buying INSP after that, on either a MSFT deal, or because of their head, or something like that. i don't understand how people can put up with him.
cramer was just on cnbc. he sounded very bullish now that we have run up from last thursday when he was bearish. you know what that means folks. the rally must be about over.
"Take Some Profits and Step Aside for a Bit By James J. Cramer 01/08/2003 01:53 PM EST Various signals indicate that the market's heading lower, although the drop shouldn't be drastic.I say take some 2003 profits before they get taken away. Get ready to feel a little pain until the VIX goes to the high 30s (it's at 28 now), we get fewer bulls, and we get more negativity. I don't expect a serious decline, just one that lasts long enough to get the negativity built up to freak people out again." amazingly cramer suddenly got negitive again late yesterday. said he was selling some stuff to raise cash for the coming pullback.so we open up today stay strong all day.
"James J. Cramer Sales Made Here Will Prove Rewarding With no business upturn in sight and war with Iraq on the way, prices won't get much higher" cramer still negitive. rally could have more to go. last week he said short BBY and buy oil service.ouch. i actually agree with him about selling here but he is wrong so often i am questioning myself.
the relevant point in regards to Cramer is not that he is consistently wrong, it's that he is consistently coinflip. (during the roaring bull market, the coin just happened to be 75% biased to one side.) in uncertain times, an analyst who sustained a high negative correlation to the market in his/her calls would be just as useful as an analyst with a high positive correlation. (and in certain/clear times, analysts are simply stating the obvious and not needed anyway) i.e. if you could always fade Cramer, then he would be as much a moneymaker as a guy who's advice you could trust. the myth of "fade the guru for profit" is surprisingly resilient and hard to kill. the truth is that the average guru never escapes the black hole of random inconsistency. Cramer isn't bad because he is wrong every time, he's bad because he is about as useful as a magic 8 ball. in the bizarro world, bizarro Cramer is intentionally trying to give bad calls, and bizarro elite traders are laughing about how he gets it right so often. but Cramer and bizarro Cramer are actually twins in their ineptitude, with an equal ratio of hits and misses. people think getting a call right every once in a while means something, or that getting a string of calls wrong means something, when in reality a ouija board or a pile of chicken bones can produce the same results.