vishnu - i agree that realmoney is one of the better sites on the web (and that allows real writing; though i subscribe to briefing, i only really do so for their intraday updates, and not much else). for exposure, it's good; gets your name out there. that's what you want - even if you're doing it as a sidelight, and don't care about the pay. cramer's strengths are that he's a good writer, he's a good salesman, and he surrounds himself with talent. those are good qualities, and if he stopped there, he'd probably be successful AND well-liked. > Recently Cramer and I clashed on the site if you point out cramer's flip-flops publicly, you'll get the wrist-slapping. it's not too hard to do, but since he usually has an excuse, you'll want to find one that's irrefutable (ie. "i own nothing as of now", then 24 hours later, "i started buying again 48 hours ago"). >c. I'm not trying to defend him but Cramer did return 30%/year >for about ten years and most of that time he was also a >journalist and writing abt his trades, which is pretty difficult to i have no doubt he did this (he says it was 24%). HOW he did this, and whether or not he could duplicate it NOW are beasts of a different feather. i'm not going to go into them- suffice it to say that after reading his book on 'how' he did stuff, and his feelings on reg FD, i don't think he'd be very profitable as a trader now. by reading a combination of cramer's book and nick maier's book, you can get an excellent insight into who he is, how he operates(operated), etc. and now, since you wanted, some of cramer's notorious things... if you go back into his action alerts, and see the entry / exits, you'll note that the portfolio is down. BIG. like 20-25% each year. now, he touts his picks as must-haves, but 2 years ago he was saying that he couldn't invest and that you (generic you) were a better investor than he was...now, of course, he touts his 'investing' skills. www.thestreet.com/_tscs/comment/wrongrear/867444.html because "i get a call from every brokerage house and you don't." if that doesn't explain part of his succes, nothing will. on february 22, 2000, cramer's winners of the world. buy and hold. the only stocks to get in 2000. if nothing else KILLED his credibility, this baby is it: http://www.thestreet.com/funds/smarter/891820.html where he recommends, as long term, ARBA, ISLD, EXDS, SVNX, INSP, INKT, MERQ, SNRA, VRSN, VRTS. since "most of these companies don't have EPS, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come." in march of 2000, he made the proper short-term call to take some off the table on the naz stocks. since that time, he's made it seem like he called it as a top...however, one week later, he was there, pounding the table to go long the 'old' nas stocks of the world. this year, he got in a spitting match with briefing, where they included an AET rumour, and cramer showed he couldn't read: http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=19173578&tid=tscm&sid=19173578&mid=95145 he praised grubman for MONTHS, knocked and tried to humiliate peter eavis for his nas 1500 comments, etc. it's all in the archives. he's also nailed many of the tops - by saying that the market has gone up for a few weeks, so it's time to buy! these are NOT poor representations. what i'd suggest doing, if you doubt me (and that's fine to do), is just mark down what he states in his posts. or, you can go back through the archives. you'll note that a large % have the OPPOSITE reaction of what cramer preaches.
If this is true, then Cramer would be the "goose that laid the golden egg." He would be worth a FORTUNE fading. My guess is that on close analysis, his picks have a random chance of success. I have noticed that these guys just state what stocks they like, not EXACTLY when they are getting in, EXACTLY when they are getting out. It is very difficult to keep accurate accounting this way... nitro
nitro - it is worth fading. the hard part of fading cramer blindly is that sometimes he'll flip-flop on the same issue within a day and no noticable difference in price - just in the way the winds blow. do i do it? no, i've got my own little trading style, that works fine for me, and i know when things aren't right to get out of trades. but could others do it? surely. cramer's AA portfolio, by the way, DOES state when he gets in and out. so even though he gets knocked (deservedly) for many things, that is not one of them.
Bingo! He is a fantastic guy to fade and has been for a while now. For a very recent call see thread below where he was emphatic that retailers were going to surprise everyone with their strong sales into the year end push. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=155026&highlight=Cramer+retail#post155026 Pick your retailer: WMT, CDWC, etc and check the charts from the middle of Nov (11/12) when he made the call and see where the stocks are right now. Just don't tell anyone (he's my secret weapon)! :eek:
I personally do not think that I would have been profitable in trading had it not been for Cramer, and I do owe him a lot. He set up TSCM, which taught me most of what I know, but he showed the ideas of fading into and out of moves over and over. I know that he flip flops (don't we all), and he gets some wrong (I get more than 75% of my trades wrong), but at the same time, he's nailed some HUGE HUGE wins since I began reading. Those wins easilly made back anything that he lost. Of course, you have to understand how to read him, how to understand what he's saying, and how to understand how sometimes he's dead wrong. He has the ears of the street though, and you can't ignore him. I think he gets this type of flack from people because of his straight forward and very direct method of presentation. He's almost in your face. When he's wrong, he just gets tarred by people for no reason. Imagine if Cramer were as quiet and mumbling as Barton Biggs. He's be hailed as a god. Think of how Biggs hasn't gotten one right in 15 years and he's still thought of as a sage. As for the streetview, as soon as I hit a critical mass to afford it in my fund, I intend to take the plunge. I am sure it is worth it. TSCM is the only site I read besides minyanville, briefing, innerworth and valueinvestorsclub.com Nothing else is really worth the time.
I decided not to renew my subscription to TSCM because of a suspicion that Cramer may have faded his own recommendations.
I really don't want to get into an argument (even less so with a great trader like yourself). The thing is Cramer isn't almost in your face. He is as in your face as anyone can get. This guy is aggressive!! Which is fine really. But when you're that aggressive and you fall flat on your face, people are going to call you up on it. They will make you remember it. Especially if you pretend like it never happened and claim that you are a trading God by not showing any humility! An old example was Tero from RM.com pointing out that Cramer had recommended Nokia while Tero had panned it. Cramer's response? "Like my daughter says, whatever." That speaks volumes about his attitude and why people don't like him. Finally, RM is not Cramer. No matter how much he wants that to be. And Streetview and RM Pro are even less Cramer than RM. So I fail to see why mentioning their quality would have any bearing on Cramer. IMHO this guy fed off of inside information flow that was choked off by Reg FD. To wit, he railed and howled at it (and still does!) because he knows that without it he wouldn't have made 90% of the money he did. As well, the hedge fund was a team effort and Cramer wasn't solely responsible for the 24% return. Berkowitz was there also. And Toddo was there too. As well as a handful of others we'll probably know nothing about. But having said all that, if you like the guy and he makes you money...then that's all that matters. All I know is he makes me money (just not in the same way as he does it for you).
Gotta ask: how do you reconcile a 75% loss percentage w/ 20% single day account risk, even if only on occasion?
gaj, Those were great posts from the archives. It's easy to remember the "take some off the table" and forget the clinkers. Remember how he turned bear right at the bottom in October '98? There was a big pissing match when Don Luskin got tired of Cramer's constant taunts and quit in a huff. His site, the old Metamarkets, then published a long list of Cramer blunders. It was actually pretty devastating, but Luskin's own performance was so abysmal and he was still so arrogant, that it stunk of sour grapes. P2, Despite my views above, I have to say I agree with much of what you say. I learned plenty from Cramer and I still do. I read every post, and probably like you, I lament that he isn't still writing Wrong!. Those were great columns written in incredibly exciting times. I have implored Todd Harrison to try and recreate that atmosphere, but he doesn't seem inclined to do so. "We are an educational site,etc,etc." I still feel Cramer is a gifted macro analyst, but maybe not the greatest when it comes to managing trades.