I think the main factor in suspending the weekly update was the fact that most or all of his clients lost most of their money (at least for now) when PFG Best went under. He was clearing through them. However I believe (without hard evidence) that he probably also had a string of losses prior to that on some positions over quite a few months, and had cut back anyway on the updates. I am just basing that on some of the casual remarks in his updates and on my estimate of what likely happened to the positions he mentioned over time. They would not be huge losses because he does diversify widely and cuts losses off very quickly. I would say he appears to be very conscientious and diligent and follows fundamentals and market psychology very assiduously. Of course the collapse of PFG put a severe dent in his business as many of his clients of course abandoned him (some are suing him for using PFG) and he has had to start over again with a new clearing firm. He still does publish his newsletter which shows his views and approach on many commodities over the months. You can access it through the web site. They do not pester you at all if you sign up. The fact that they will not quote performance, even informally over the phone, is indicative of the general carefulness in their business (with the exception of going with PFG of course). Stu Johnston does have a broader world-view and it is an excellent book, although somewhat idiosyncratic in his organization and approach. Probably you do need to build your own approach because his is a bit tortuous / convoluted. He does go long at times and uses a broader range of options and approaches. He trades stock options as well as futures options and tends to go for "special situations" quite a bit which are subjective.
Regarding "Trading Options to Win", I'm only 70 pages in the book but it strikes me as following blindly the orthodox models - I'll read further but wouldn't feel confortable selling otm options on random walk calculations only. Any feed back on the issue ? Does Johnston later take into account shortcomings of the model in calculating small probabilities event ? Besides just finished Antifragile, the new bok from Taleb, quite interesting even if I'd prefered it (quite ) a bit shorter and am not convinced by all of Taleb's assertions.
Phi413, I do that as well. Trade the same 7-9 underlyings. AAPL. AMZN, NFLX, FFIV, LULU, GMCR, MNX, SPY [sometimes will look at ESRX, CMG, ADBE, GS, SDS, TNA etc.] IM me if you want to set up a chat or email whereby we can share ideas, etc. etc. I am in Chicago.
Re the comments/questions about Cordier: On the Big Mike forum, look up Ron99 and a long thread about selling options. He said he was a Cordier client for a couple of years and did very well, but recently quit. In the 'flat' years, Cordier's clients still lost 20%+ according to him because of the very steep commissions. I think the commissions are $75 RT per contract which is 19% of a hypothetical $400 option sale, and an even greater percentage if that option is bought to close when it has 5% or 10% of original premium remaining. I'm getting those numbers from Cordier's book. If he practices what he preaches, then he's getting equivalent to "2 and 20" without taking any personal or firm risk. Now, maybe he sells a lot of $500 to $800 options and the steep commissions don't take such a big bite when the trade works, but to get that kind of premium he's selling closer to the money, longer term, or in some v. high volatility markets. FWIW, minimum investment for new clients is back down to $100K, from a minimum of $250K (and suggested $1M) a little over a year ago. I've read most of his book but I've never been a client. I must be on a list; I still get the occasional "option seller" email update.
reading Antifragile myself. He's not easy reading, partly because, I don't believe English is his 1st language... and, Elite Trader might consider a Books Forum, unless there's not enough demand marc
I thought reading Antifragile took me so much time because english is not my 1st language either, but if it's a tough task for native speakers as well, there might be something else indeed... Brighton, thanks for your feeback, I will look up that thread. As of your calculation on Cordier's fees, it seems he charges them as well on losing trades, so it does add up quite a bit.
You guys need Cordier to short puts for you? Does having any intermediary make it easier to take a loss (serious question)?