Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by pinetboltz, Dec 18, 2017.
Thats not really an anti polar bear trend statement, Eu9. But as a practical matter if i did it over again i would glance @ an indicator, not that its the key to ft Knox, but helpful like 50 dma.....
I know many use discretion , but short systems hardly ever make the money long systems do, even though short systems.... can make money faster[daytraders like 'em].Continue to keep paper charts QQQ went fromm $120 area to under $20, about 80 % JNPR went down also.... LOL [Delayed edit note, QQQ same as QQQQ+it felt like JNPR would never go down+ with 20/20 hindsight i would have done QCOM, Excellera.com LOL...LOL.By the way the red coke can ,with the 3 polar bears on it comes out about OCT or SEPT-strange but true.
lol, is that a fancy metaphor, sea of "red" / "bear" raid / sell in may and go away
Not an old pro just an amateur mom and pop retail lived through 2000 and 2008.
Even for us, those days were like having your own personal money printing machine, all the way to March 2000, then it all came crushing down. No one I know shorted Nasdaq and many of the pros that shorted Nasdaq did it way too early or too late.
In today's market and especially with bitcoin many say this time it is different. For some of us retails with scar tissues from 2000 and 2008, we know better. We constantly take money off the table in the current bull market, instead of trying to time and short Nasdaq or tech stock or bitcoin. Because we are not smart enough to know when they will crush.
Your premise of a "parabolic rise" in NA equity markets has no validity at this point.
There is something devilishly delightful about making $ at a time when the bewildered herd is getting wiped out. As a trader everyone will hate you in a bear market. So here's a few tips U asked for:
* wait for clear evidence the market is weak. step aside for the first down leg & wait for the counter rally - it will typically retrace half to two-thirds of the down leg before rolling over.
look for weak trend lines at lower angles with volume constricting -. these bear flags will appear over and over and are the fulcrum from where rallies turn into another big free fall - the ideal spot to short - it helps to learn the measured moves since it seems to somewhat reliable with bear flags.
* expect big rallies in the morning with bigger sell off in the afternoons.
* if you swing or trend trade hang on until price closes above a previous days high - it is easy to bail to early out a great short that is carving out new lows week after week.
* be careful when the market flattens out - this is where liquidity will vanish & what kicked my ass., nothing but whipsaws. this is the big lull to wipe out the last of the traders before a new bull market emerges.
* at some point consider also going long on the rallies - these brief but powerful rallies can tack on 50% gains onto beat up tech stocks.
* it is said the market takes the stairs up and the elevator down. trading a bear is a lot of fun - just be ready for a furious pace. I recall one day when a bear rally had the QQQ up over 11% on the day. It pays to play both sides as long as you make shorting your primary focus. good luck
good stuff, must be seriously awesome trading that kind of market on both sides
Strange but true pineboltz;
+ yahoo Mountain DeW has a green [pine tree green]mountain, on can-cant make this stuff UP LOL
Repeating pattern, 80%,160%.......
Actually i was party right, figuring some stocks could win even in a polar bear market 2000-2001-2002; but JPNR was NOT one of them LOL-LOL. By the way the QQQ [QQQQ same thing] 52 week run up was; i checked it again, about $50 to $120/+[ NOT exact number, but close] . Thats QQQ is closer to Up 150%; + 80% downtrend/polar bear trend.
Seems like QQQ is an obvious short , in 2ooo MAR + is- in hindsight; but really that was what BigTrends .com book called a ''elephant trunk sell signal'' , on monthly chart And when it did go up some, again after peak in hindsight, from $1oo, QQQ monthly charts, @ the time it looked like the bull run was still healthy =elephant up trend.
I like shorts, PineB,[when it is main trend] ,actually shorts easier with ETFs, cant squeeze you that way; but shorts tend to make + take profits faster, make profits fine But take profits faster not so fine LOL. I dont think we had ETFs/inverse shorts if i remember right; but could short QQQ .
I have some polar bear 2000-2001-2002 QQQ charts @30.00/+..... Cool, LOL
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