I hear you. Sometimes just a market shift can cause the black box not to work. I read somewhere where MIT made an auto trading system, but it didn't work for long. I personally used a auto trading program---results were the same. So yep, that statement is correct from my personal experience. Well I just started my "new system" at the beginining of the month, I haven't missed the winning trades like I did when I was a rookie. You forgot to address why you think Options are more forgiving.
I think way different, most people simply don't understand TA, they read books which gives them someone else's idea on how TA should work, but as far as studying it many hours and self learning what to do with an indicator, what the indicator should do when Price moves in a certain way, finding the changes you can't normally see with Price alone. Price is king, indicators can give a quicker view of Price at a slower speed, and to me, slow is golden whether intraday trading or on monthly charts. I laugh at all the times someone wants something faster, but that gives way too much overtrading of false moves. Like a 21 EMA, it is very much like a trendline waiting for price to come and bounce off of it cause so many others are doing the same, it is like Fibs, nothing special about those but cause so many are doing it, it tends to work, self fulfilling. Trading with the trend seldom works in ES, by time you have a trend, it is almost over, but markets like Crude or Russell are runners. Trends work much better on longer timeframes, but going against the trend works as well IF it is part of your gameplan. You can only have so many HH's and HL's before highs start rounding to show it is going to retrace.
Ofcourse there all scammer, hate scammers, the latest trend is all the loser no SL guru's with basket trades and martingale strategies doh!! Trend is ofcourse tricky to get right, lets fact it most people are using candle stick rubbish for this. DAX has more chop, I can exploit the chop all day long, even when the trade is wrong there is a good chance the chop will get me out positive or a small loss, I had a run of 17 profits in a row recently, Used to trade GA 3 pip spread, it's got a 6pip range so just useless for my method,
Trading with the trend is also fake, best way I've found is. Wait for a pause, 10min's say where the market is going sideways, a indecision point, if you think market will go up, get a Long near the low of the range, tight SL, it'll break either way, if down small loss, if up much bigger profit, throw in some trend logic and hey presto, buying tops and bottoms with patience works.
When your winning in the market, Your suppose to set money aside to replenish your account. Im planning on leaving my job, however I will have at least enough capital to fund my account 2x over.
So true brother, I remember staring at my computer with a blank stare for over 30 minutes because I came to that realization of trends. Then I had to rethink what trendlines were, when to augment them and rethink/rework when to enter and when to get out. The "Trade Gurus" always point out (past data ofcourse) how to buy at the bottom of a trend and sell at the high. And everytime I followed this: 1. Price break out of the trend taking my stops with it 2. Trade works for a while but do not follow the trend fully and then retrace for a loss. LOL, yeah Handle, so true.
Yes, this is true, but what I am planning on doing is diversify: stock, business, realestate....etc... Next on my list is actually "Tax Certificates".
I wasted YEARS trying to get on the upward momentum say, it turns up, I go long, it stalls like it does 90% of the time, it hits my tight SL arrggghhhh!! After the fact you only see the big easy moves, you don't see the 20 false starts before the big move. These days I just have to trust my range will hold and pretty much just jump in at the outter ranges with trend if there is any, with a 10SL and just wait and see, works most of the time but it's a leap of faith that it'll hold.
Stick to 1 thing and do it well, just keep enough to 1 side if say the US ban all trading or something stupid ( if your american ) land of the free and all that LOL There not far off with all there rules as is.