I currently position trade grains and energies. But I am looking to get more involved with trading livestock. Are there any livestock traders or livestock floor traders that could help me out hear? I understand the longer term forcasts as that is what I usually base my trades off of but what does the market look at in the very short term. I read reviews of the meat markets and they mention boxed beef prices, packer profit margin, slaughter rates and cash trade. Can anyone explain each of these and tell me how you are suppose to gauge what they will be in the future? Any other help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks
I trade the cattle complex. I would suggest you go to CME.com and read up on Moore Historical Report subscribe to Daily Livestock Report (free) read up articles on www.cattlenetwork.com and track cash cattle trade on the following link: http://marketnews.usda.gov/gear/browseby/txt/SJ_LS831.TXT Cash cattle usually trades in the plains on Thurs/Fri and sometimes Nebraska trades on Wed and can be seen as a precursor. Boxed beef prices get published twice per day morning and closing prices. I currently am long a 94/92 put spread in Oct LC for 70 pts and also got long a 94/95/96/97 condor for 35 pts in Jun 07 that I will probably lose the entire premium come options expiration. My view was that basis was too wide with June circa 93 and cash at 97. But for some reason it seems the basis this time around is 4 pts.
Hey thanks for the insight but could you tell me exactly how these options spreads work. I have actually wanted to get more into options trading the ag markets but find them hard to understand. Thanks
youngtrader have you read this thread: http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1479443#post1479443 i beleive you started it... get the initiative, take the above mentioned advice and invest your time in understanding this stuff... if your interested in controlling your risk then pursue it. Me... I got tired of blowing up like roman candle with futures etc; and took TWO YEARS out of the game to study these bastards, and I'm not even a fifth of the way through their complexities. just type into the ET search bar "options"... and read everything... you'll be amazed... (not being a dick) PS, for whats its worth, the livestock options pit seems to be soon to go as well... i thought LE options are already available on globex?.. I'm not sure... anyway....
bigbiscuit hey thanks for the advice, I know I said I would like to know more about options spreads (which I do) but I really want to know how the cattle industy moves in the short term hence this is why I started it in the ag forum. You mentioned do the above research and I did look on the cme website but all it talks about is the longer term forcast and to tell you the truth I have traded the livestock markets quite profitably in the longer term and know all about hog and pig reports and cattle on feed reports and how to determine the supply 6-12 months down the road. I am more interested now in what the market trades off of in the short term. I believe this would help greatly with shorter term trades and getting into longer term positions. Thanks
i went to short term and that has worked for me.i just watch support/resistance levels,ma and trendlines.cash and cutout values and then just watch to see how they react.the day after a report are usually the best cause i find they over-react(short term).but thats just me