============== Hey Don that was leading; you posted on it 2-23-07 ""General K.Haggerty'' '' mentioned another leading indicator, which has worked in the past, first & last days of month can be bullish. And he didnt makle a prediction or call it leading; but cautioned lower lows could change that[I read his comments on YHOO/finance, when i get a eod/lagging quote for QQQQ, SPY.....]
I do not know....... I don't expect much of such people....but there is the more or less constant drum beat going on and in several locations... what does it take to contribute instead of follow that kind of approach. It comes and goes as each thread poops out after a while. If I were confrontational, I would prbably post some complaints about the personal comments that are being made daily. I try to not read them but it is hard to avoid..... It is not a necessary price to have to pay for my being present here and my posting. It is not a price anyone should have to pay..... This person is and a few others have really treated human beings so poorly and so persistently. It just says a lot about how the world is turning... Harsh is not a way to describe my prior comment.... It is unsatisfactory for people on ET to treat others the way they do..... It happened and it continued to happen.... They are going to have to think though their record of behavior.... I do no longer care about how I am treated here... that went away a long time ago....
Kevin's is just quoting the Traders Almanac. Nothing "original". He also said he was "Managing Partner of the CBOE" - of which there is no position, and he has never been a member. I think he was a broker at Fidelity. Be careful with "gurus". All the best, Don
When it comes to the S&P futures, the trin and the vix are extremely reliable at predicting where the spoos will go. Both indices are not only predictable in terms of pattern but also in terms of how far they will move before turning. The secret lies in creating a standard unit of measurement by which their respective trends are first established and then based on the trend, project how far they will go. For example it is Wednesday morning 1070228 and based on just the Vix alone, I know the market will rally to a degree because the vix has established a trend down. I have certain rules for establishing a trend and then project how far that trend will continue given how far it has already moved. 02/27/2007 1890 2:06pm 1774 2:13pm 1757 2:19pm 16.75 16.08 15.42 14.59 13.90 You notice that at 2:19 we had established a trend down and I know that the vix will continue down and eventually hit one of my projected numbers with an accuracy of .02. If it doesn't hit one of my first series of numbers, then I rerun the calculation with additional data. 02/27/2007 1890 2:06pm 1774 2:13pm 1757 2:19pm 1741 2:24pm 16.49 15.74 15.00 14.08 13.30 And again if the vix does not hit any of these numbers I continue on with my calculation until it does hit my projected numbers. Furthermore, I also know that if it hit one of my first projected numbers it will also hit a second, and if it hits a second it will likely hit a third. Generally it will not go further than a fourth or fifth hit, unless we have highly unusual market conditions like yesterday. So consequently in going long on the market this morning at 9:13 cst I can wait, sit back and relax and know that I need not worry about the market coming back on me until my numbers are finally being hit. This maximizes single trades and avoids the practice of scalping which really is quite inefficient. This method was so effective yesterday, a single trade pulled 30 points simply by knowing how far the trin and the vix will likely move before they turn. 02/27/2007 1890 2:06pm 1774 2:13pm 1757 2:19pm 1741 2:24pm 1679 8:37am 1671 8:59am 15.36 HIT EXACTLY AT 9:46 AM CST ON 2/28/2007 14.26 13.17 11.81 10.67 So when one of these projected numbers is hit I can then determine if other market condition are favorable for exiting the trade. This single move was worth no less than 12 points.
=============== Thanks, i was aware of the source; but my 2001 edition is compiled by mr Yale Hirsch Same book; different cover???????????? Good advice''be careful with gurus;'' noticed some leading indicators didnt work near as well as price during big sell off/strong trends