Your question is a good one. The answer is "experience". After doing this a number of years, I see that volatility ebbs and flows like ocean tides. There are 52 weeks in a year and I use a calendar to outline seasonal volatility changes. I keep the calendars and after a while I can see patterns in how volatile each week was. Other sources of seasonal volatility info include the Yale Hirsch book. As you know, no method of estimation is foolproof. There are plenty of times when I have been wrong. Fortunately I am correct enough to make a living. Good luck everyone. Lefty
Soooo. This could turn out to be a good thread. If you have seen those threads that mention about 38 steps to go through to get to be able to trade, then the comments I will make here will shorten it to about 8 steps. Lets suppose that you can make more money by exiting before your stop is hit. The stop is there to keep you from losing more than a certain predetermined amount of money and you also know that there is no connection between your entry price and your exit price. you also know that by doing wash trades on bad entries you do not have to take any losses. So entries, stops and wshing is OFF the table. now lets get down to the making money part.