Does anyone have any ideas on how to tell if it's going to be a light day? I'm looking for some kind of pre-market indication of whether or not the trading day is going to be a lower than average volume one. Days like yesterday (July 3rd), are pretty easy to see that they will cause it was between a weekend and holiday (not even taking into acct the 1pm close). Also Days like the Friday before a holiday weekend are usually slower. But what about regular old trading days. Any ideas on how to determine if they are going to at least open with lower than average volume trading? Look at SPY pre-market? Overseas Trading volume? ??? Cash
You are presuming that low volume equates to low volatility. Not always so. Sometimes the old folks let the youngun's play on days like yesterday. Would you not trade a midday move just because it occurs on low volume? Trading was good yesterday.
================ Sometimes premarket, like GM last week premarket, hinted lower. However , havent found anything that is a premarket real light day indicator; summers[ 3rd quarter] can be that way.
I wouldn't call it a direct indicator, but I find the volatility and range of the overnight futs often hint at the tone of the overall market the next day.
i notice the week of the fed is like watching snails race. Also days without major economic news is going to be a light day.
Look at what absorbency of Tampax your girlfriend buys. This response is no stupider than the question.
No such presumption. In fact low volume can present some good opening and intraday volatility just because there are fewer people to take the other side. THis is precisely why I'm trying to find an indicator of such.
Do you find that lower volatility in the futures overnight results in lower volume to start the day off?
I think the connection is more between overnight volatility and trading range not volume per se- sorry if I misunderstood the nature of your question. However, excepting what hypostmus said about the occasional large move on low volume (as in 7/3), volatility is usually tied to increased volume.
Hard to know just what to think when hearing these sage comments. Just as quick note. Most of the folks who I learned from monitor the Asian (Hang Seng) and European (DAX & Stoxx) markets prior to the US open. In general way, this provides a context for the US open. Another piece of the puzzle is the pre-market indication which you could get IF you subscribed to the exchange imbalance report. Since markets are mostly imbalance driven these days, the final clue is might be the Prem, or data from Market Profile. I am sure you folks know this, but simply forgot to mention it in your previous comments. Cash you trade with Bright so surely they taught you that a long, long time ago, right? Steve