Any FOREX retail traders still alive after 3/18

Discussion in 'Forex' started by ivanbaj, Mar 19, 2009.

  1. If your alive just say moooola.

    There must have been some real carnage yesterday in the FOREX corner.
  2. moarla


    why? all beeing long now rich, all beeing short poor....
    business as usual
  3. epetrov


    The MOVE was in MY direction during an OPEN position!!!
    I got shocked!!!
  4. absolutely killin it with some swing trades that took off.

    left about 500 ticks on the table putting in a TP on one overnight, DOH!
  5. IluvVol


    Well, even after the Fed announcement there was and still is plenty money to be made in short USD ( i stayed clear prior to the announcement so I obviously missed those avg. 200pips). I shorted USD against the whole cross basket and it just keeps on going. I periodically adjust my stops because I think at some point there will be some breather and correction. But I am very positive that this USD weakness will really continue in the next couple weeks/months.

    If you think you are too late to the game just wait for a pull back and short USD from there, this all given the current situation and things may obviously change depending on possible central bank intervention in Japan/Australia/NZ down the road or other changes in fundamentals. Will see but the direction is pretty clear for now I think.
  6. Agreed... Did that this morning (vs Aussie and gold) and doin' well so far.

    Wondering when the spanking of the poor USD pauses and who the next late party entrant is gonna be. Might be SEK and, gasp, possibly EUR?
  7. Are you kidding, everyone on ET makes money, well that's what they tell us anyway and we believe them because everyone on ET is honest and truthful :D
  8. IluvVol


    hard to say, but I see it like this: Without doubt is the USD the currency with heaviest borrowing and paper printing vs most other major crosses. I believe that the US will be the leader and it has been in this last 15% up week in regards to equity markets so there will be plenty people chasing this market, afraid of missing out. But I dont think any foreign fund manager will keep his USD currency exposure unhedged, so I dont see this as a deterrent for further USD weakness because the hedge counterparties will need to eventually short spot USD no matter what.

    While we knew that before yesterday I think the market took this as a trigger to start killing DXY. From what I hear there are still plenty guys long USD out there so each time the crosses push to new highs vs USD more of them will be shaken out. Then down the road this short USD trade will become very crowded. I loved yesterday for the fact that it gave me a very clear roadmap for the next few weeks, possibly months.

  9. Yep, was reading something today along these lines, which suggested that, almost by construction, the rest of the world is massively long downside gamma on USD. Basically, the argument goes that if you have lots of external USD-denominated debt, every time the dollar falls you have less real demand for USD that you need to service the debt.

    Now I am trying to think of whether this is a positive or negative for USD here.
  10. rickf


    Yes -- because I never trade fx on Fed days. :)
    #10     Mar 19, 2009