The things that keep me nervous about the scenario that I outlined are the changing credit ratings that could be a catalyst for much greater sub prime and Alt A pain. Escalation of the Iran Uk affair though I think this is low probability as it is not in the dominant players (west) interest. Continued Yen strength. Regulatory action by China that will hit their market which in turn could impact ours. The chart pattern from 87, and the ones that I think Bylo posted from the 60's which such high correlations to this last years move. If the correlation holds up then it is down from here. My strategy specifically is long NQ futures as a core position (mostly because there is record short interest right now) trying to occasionally trade the dow mini futures on retracements intra day. Long calls on the Yen future (as a hedge against a strong move in the yen which will hopefully offset potential NQ losses from liquidity loss from carry trade unwinding), long 10 yr futures (short 10 yr calls) these should move if the market does take a hit and if we do rally big then the calls should mitigate some of the losses on the futures. Long a small number of oil futures in case the Iran situation flares which i will use as a buying op for more NQ. Long (EEM, CFC, Rimm, CC, BBY) puts, Goog calls.
Interesting . . . Not one single post by a "technician" that gives reference to market internals. Instead, it is the usual ET stuff about "housing, Iran, China, oil prices, inflation, blah, blah, blah, blah . . ." and a bunch of other generalized media drivel. Does anyone actually TRADE on ET, or is it full of a bunch of college kids home on Spring break that read the newspaper and fantasize about trading?
Shorted, banks and brokers last tuesday, still holding. LEH is my one of my best. Been Bearish on US equities for the last two quarters, but just pulled the trigger last week. (It isn't easy being short even though I'm Bearish) Bullish on OIL and YEN. Yen may pull back to 116 but expecting Yen to continue to rally.
LOL, TA is a self-fulling prophacy my friend. Line 4 TA's up and you will get 4 diffrent Pivit numbers, support and resistance levels. TA is 1/100 of the game. TA is also skewed since 'Everyone' Follow's TA numbers that are obvious...it is much live the VIX. The VIX was a strong indicator in 99-2000, now, VIX is another 1/100th of a indicator.
Yea I agree TA is overrated 99% of the time. there are a few instances where it is useful but most of the time it gives false signals.
EEM along with every other emerging market etf continues to rally. The only way I know how to go very bearish on emerging markets is with DXESX. Its a inverse mutual fund. Its looking very attractive uner $8.00. Last time I got very bullish on DXESX it jumped close to 20%. Think I may buy some under $7.50 for the next emerging markets selloff, its good for at least a 20-30% gain when these markets start to correct.
Fake rally, based on numbers stretched beyond credulity. Nice month over month housing sales gain of 0.7%. lmao.
I'm not sure. Lots of double and triple tops being taken out and seems like a braod based buy in vs few weeks ago when only a few stocks were driving things to new highs. If the Iran standoff resolves and we get a decent employment report nd maybe a few more positive(as in at least going in the right direction) housing sub prime news items then we will see new highs on short covering alone. Still I am keeping well hedged here as it is onlt a matter of time until we take out the March low imo.