Bottom picking is not my forte, but I've added to my AUD longs today, making 3 near-month futures at avg in .7307, stops tight either side .7205. Reason? Compare AUD (and NZD) on June 30, 2004, then the next day, namely after bubble of expected hawkish Fed burst by actual FOMC annoucement.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana, 1905. Does this apply to expectations undone in markets, including for hyper hawkishness on inflation?
According to my analysis there is a good long term selling opportunity brewing in the EUR/USD that should be worth 500 + pips.
I may sell these puppies today, on theory that profit-taking next week may allow AUD longs to be re-established below .7400. Smash-and-grab target (meaning today) anywhere above .7449. Position above water as much as 137 ticks from avg in, max drawdrawn 45 ticks from avg in.
Light, holiday volume today's session may create frothy price action which pierces my smash-and-grab ("take it and run") number Friday, .7449, but I won't take it now, waiting instead solely for chance to add to AUD longs at or below .7400. Patience play. 300-tick home run the goal.
Get all you want down here. I've added two, boosting position to five longs, stops for all at avg in for first three.