Any Biotech experts on ET?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Maverick74, Feb 19, 2004.

  1. Maverick74


    Anybody follow the biotech or drug stops pretty closely?
  2. I hear that AMGN is the cream of the crop and that they are having an upcoming conference in NYC on March 23rd in which they will talk about 6 new drugs in their pipeline.

    But the stock hasn't done much during this recent Bull move in equities. Perhaps that's why they are having an investor conference.

    Pfizer's "Lipitor" is the number one selling drug right now:

    2003 Sales

    (US$ Billions) PCT CHANGE
    1 Lipitor 6.8 10.8
    2 Zocor 4.4 7.0
    3 Prevacid 4.0 11.8
    4 Procrit 3.3 3.7
    5 Zyprexa 3.2 6.6
    6 Epogen 3.1 6.5
    7 Nexium 3.1 57.7
    8 Zoloft 2.9 11.5
    9 Celebrex 2.6 -0.5
    10 Neurontin 2.4 19.3

    Top 10 Pharmaceutical cos. by U.S. prescription sales for 2003:

    2003 Sales
    (US$ Billions) PCT CHANGE
    1 Pfizer 29.2 9.7
    2 GlaxoSmithKline (London:GSK.L - News) 18.6 4.6
    3 Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ - News) 15.2 14.0
    4 Merck and Co. (NYSE:MRK - News) 14.1 9.1
    5 AstraZeneca 10.4 -5.8
    6 Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY - News) 9.6 6.6
    7 Novartis (NOVN.VX) 9.5 23.8
    8 Amgen (NasdaqNM:AMGN - News) 7.7 34.7
    9 Wyeth (NYSE:WYE - News) 7.6 4.9
    10 Lilly (NYSE:LLY - News) 7.5 11.7

    SOURCE: IMS Health (NYSE:RX - News)
  3. My best single turn profit so far.
  4. Maverick74


    I'm looking to get some info on SEPR. On February 29th, they are expecting word from the FDA regarding approval for a sleep aid drug called Estorra which will compete against Ambien. Is anyone familiar with this drug or this stock and what kind of reaction you would expect from an FDA approval?
  5. lindq


    Drugs are the single category of stocks I never touch. Far too many variables and unknowns can impact the stocks, from government regulators to lawsuits, patient deaths, failed trials, patent suits, etc. etc. etc. And once a drug stock gets hit hard, they typically take a long time to recover because the news can seriously impact their fundamental outlook.

    If in doubt, just ask poor Sam Waksal. Here's a guy who panics on a leaked FDA report, sells out, goes to jail, then his product is approved and the stock takes off.

    Now was that a bad trade, or what?
  6. My best investment ever, has been this biotech hedge fund I'm in. Perceptive Life Sciences...they've more than doubled my money in 3 1/2 years.
  7. lindq


    What's the fund? If they are solidly plugged into the industry, it's certainly a better play than trying to trade the stocks on your own.
  8. Maverick74


    OK, I am not looking to buy this stock or invest in the company. I just want to try to gauge the +- % move I can expect after this FDA meeting. So if anyone has been following the patterns of SEPR or knows anything about the sleep aid drug in question, let me know.
  9. I think your best shot would be to obtain some sort of research report from either Steven Valiquette at UBS, or Richard Silver at Lehman Brothers on SEPR.
  10. Maverick74


    Thanks, I'll look into that.
    #10     Feb 19, 2004