It will be real interesting to see if the SP500 can break out above its 200 day moving average (blue line, 2,764) and hold it. [SP500, 3 months, daily candles, 200dma (blue line: 2,764)
I'm not in any equities / indices positions right now, waiting for a consistent long-term trend. With indices these would usually be up. If and when I do get long again on the US indices I'll tow along a raft of sell orders on weak individual UK equities, there was huge recent divergence between some of these cr@p shares and the Dow.
From a "long term" investor perspective, the uptrend is still intact. On this 4 year monthly candle chart of the SP500, the SP500 bounced off the 20ma in the month of October 2018 and has stayed above it. We really do not have a true bear market unless the SP500 has a monthly closing candle below the 40ma. [SP500, 4 year, monthly candles, 20ma & 40ma] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ From a "short and intermediate" term perspective, the market is somewhat bearish with the declining 50 day moving average a temporary ceiling. It will have to break above the 50ma and hold it, to resume a short to intermediate term uptrend. [SP500, 3 month, daily candles, 50ma]
Here is an interesting thought: (Please don't misinterpret my meaning) (A) In the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis, Real Estate Mortgage Bonds (MBS: Mortgage Backed Securities) started the Crisis that took down the economies of the world. In baseball terms, Real Estate Mortgage Bonds were the "Lead Off Hitter" in the Crisis. (B) It is very possible today that the Real Estate Industry could be giving us a Leading Indicator of future problems. Is it once again trying to be the Lead Off Hitter?" Look at the 3 year chart of the Real Estate Builders and Material Suppliers ETF called NAIL. Its down -74.85% since the January 2018 high! [NAIL, 3 years, monthly candles]
You really think there is something similar cooking. The banks have filters and checks in place to limit the possibilities. Let's hope there isn't another shoe to drop to send us over the edge. If there were, it won't come from banks.
I know for a fact that one or more of the largest 5 banks in the US have already packaged and started selling Mortgage Back Securities again. The same garbage that created the 2008-2009 financial crisis. You have to remember that the previous administration installed new regulatory laws to help prevent this from happening again, but the current administration has killed most of those preventive regulations.