Any bear traders out there.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by viruscore1, Nov 4, 2018.

  1. sss12

    sss12

    ….and has this matched your actual returns.
     
    #21     Nov 5, 2018
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    It was a paper backtest.

    In general when long options I don't exercise. If I want to own the underlying I buy it.
     
    #22     Nov 5, 2018
    sss12 likes this.
  3. sss12

    sss12

    got it. but an additional question....using a back test what value is given the option ? the close on expiry day ? if so couldn't that be a little misleading ?
     
    #23     Nov 5, 2018
  4. ironchef

    ironchef

    At expiry there is no time premium so the option price will be = (underlying - strike). The complicated part is how to find the call premium at start, back in 2013 through 2017. It is counter intuitive or I made an error in my backtest: I always thought, like the other poster, that buy and hold option till expiry was not a good strategy, i.e. the no free lunch principle.

    But in a bull market like we have since 2009, buying options is like buying on margin, there is no skills or edge, you are just riding Beta. :D

    And there will be lot's of pain when the music stops (like for me, Feb-Mar and Sept-Oct of this year). :(
     
    #24     Nov 5, 2018
  5. sss12

    sss12

    Understand, but that wasn't my point. Your backrest is somewhat hypo as you may not be able to execute the trade (if it were live) at the price your test is using.
     
    #25     Nov 5, 2018
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    Not so.

    1. I can get accurate Call premium value if I purchase data from a data house.

    2. Or I could use historical IV, risk free rate and dividend rate to compute a fairly accurate Call premium.

    3. If you want you can purchase SPY LEAP at about mid of bid/ask.
     
    #26     Nov 5, 2018
  7. sss12

    sss12

    Disagree, your stuff will be close but not true execution level.
     
    #27     Nov 5, 2018
  8. ironchef

    ironchef

    I still cannot get it right. :D
     
    #28     Nov 5, 2018
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    Not a problem, just trying to be helpful. OK to disagree.

    Good luck to you.
     
    #29     Nov 5, 2018
  10. Yes.
     
    #30     Nov 5, 2018