anticipating market moves when patterns break

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by mute9003, Dec 25, 2021.

  1. padutrader

    padutrader

    damn right
    a reversal pattern in the middle of a bigger range- and this is missed even by the most experienced of traders- has no meaning because there is NOTHING TO REVERSE.

    but context will work even without a pattern or a set up.

    so why search for something that is not necessary?

    the things traders do is really funny :chasing their tails.

    do not get me wrong: i too have done exactly that for 14 years
     
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2021
    #11     Dec 25, 2021
  2. padutrader

    padutrader

    context does not fail....but it can change.....since you do not know when it will change you assume it wont and put a stop in such a place that it will trigger if it context changes.

    if you put your stop right and you have taken a position on the assumption it is a range then if the stop get hit you know it is now a trend so you can adjust your assumptions and your position for that :reverse !.

    you can lose money being right so never feel you have done wrong........

    trading is that simple but do not get overconfident....it is NOT easy.
     
    #12     Dec 25, 2021
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    You had better stow that shit right quick, because you are getting too big for your britches. Just because you met a target profit in a prop firm eval does not mean you passed the eval. You need to be humble, and not feel the need to give everyone advice on how to do anything just because you met a bullet point on a checklist of trading.

    You told me on the fucking Skype that you were not here trying to give anyone advice. Yet that is exactly what you are doing, over and over and over again.

    Follow your own advice, kid. "...but do not get overconfident....it is NOT easy."
     
    #13     Dec 25, 2021
    Leob likes this.
  4. padutrader

    padutrader

    FOR A BEGINNER IT IS NOT EASY
     
    #14     Dec 26, 2021
  5. padutrader

    padutrader

    it does mean another one day of trading and it will mean exactly that.

    are qualified to judge me or anyone else
     
    #15     Dec 26, 2021
  6. easymon1

    easymon1

    If you're in a POTENTIAL Head and Shoulders setup while the right shoulder is still forming then you would be in the trade before a setup trigger has occured.
    That's easy enough to fix..."wait for the pattern to complete".
    Head and Shoulders is a setup with clear-cut rules that lend themselves well to specific and accurate stats-taking by the serious diligent student of the markets.
    You could go find a dozen H&S setups and write down the -Stop, -Entry, -Exit and see if this setup warrants further consideration. If it does then continue your stats taking on 88 more setups. With stats on 100 triggered setups, you'll have a good idea of whether this is a viable setup. After you have done this procedure for a dozen setups, you will see some perform better than others. Overall market conditions will affect the performance of setups over time as market cycles evolve. ...Or you can just wing it. Your choice.

    How to trade head and shoulders pattern for mute9003 - https://duckduckgo.com/?q=How+to+trade+head+and+shoulders+pattern+for+mute9003&t=h_&ia=web

    How to Trade the Pattern
    It's important that traders wait for the pattern to complete. This is so because a pattern may not develop at all or a partially developed pattern may not complete in the future. Partial or nearly completed patterns should be watched, but no trades should be made until the pattern breaks the neckline.

    In the head and shoulders pattern, we are waiting for price action to move lower than the neckline after the peak of the right shoulder. For the inverse head and shoulders, we wait for price movement above the neckline after the right shoulder is formed.- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/121201.asp

    delete hnsp.jpg
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2021
    #16     Dec 26, 2021
    Leob and Gasparov like this.
  7. Sprout

    Sprout

    It helps to do multi-timeframe analysis. A long trend and h&s forming on the 30m can be “anticipated” to either;
    1)continue or
    2)change

    by observing a faster timeframe like the 5m.
     
    #17     Dec 26, 2021
  8. Most trends arent textbook plays today. They tend to be uglier the more algos are on it
     
    #18     Dec 27, 2021
    Leob and Handle123 like this.
  9. Handle123

    Handle123

    I agree with parts of your post. Please remember when we post sites, they give a general easiest definition of patterns, but H&S patterns can go way past of those patterns. Most traders do not have stats of last 5 days of day session upswing and downswing, it gives an idea of anticipated volatility, on average how far must an instrument travel when there is an expected turn. In my case, until ES travels 90% of upswing average, H&S patterns against current trend are ignored. Stats show me percentages of success are low if under swing ave.

    H&S top is failure to make new highs in basic terms, plus can be complex where multiple right shoulders.

    There are many areas to enter for H&S but I don't do neckline, never made sense to wait so long. After entry I use time stops, so many bars to take profit or target or protective stop changed breakeven + a tick. I have learned good trades take off in expected direction quickly or Grab small scalp.
     
    #19     Dec 27, 2021
  10. easymon1

    easymon1

    According to the vast majority of information out there the Classic entry on a Head and Shoulders is at the break of the neckline.
    You have modified your approach after due diligence.

    Imagine the odds that the OP has done even the scantest test of a dozen or so occurances of H&S patterns, much less taken stats and analyzed 100 occurances. Consider your audience. Mute9003 might need to walk before he runs. He may need to benchmark his setups before he trades them. You have not only benchmarked the H&S but found methods to customize it to work better than off the shelf for you. Good on you.
     
    #20     Dec 27, 2021