Antibody tests support what’s been obvious: Covid-19 is much more lethal than the flu

Discussion in 'Politics' started by gwb-trading, Apr 28, 2020.

  1. Another thing we can say with absolute certainty is that the models and experts have been so completely wrong that we can conclude there are no models worth a crap and that there are no experts
     
    #11     Apr 29, 2020
    Tsing Tao likes this.
  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    I disagree with this. Many models have been remarkably accurate. Especially those using adaptive analytics that alter the results based on changes in the mitigation strategy as the responses evolve.
     
    #12     Apr 29, 2020
    Cuddles likes this.
  3. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Funny, reminds me of a Morgan Stanley call I was on at the start of this. Someone asked them why their models showed a much more rosey picture than the ones circulated by the health "experts". They responded "When the health experts are wrong, you never hear about it. They just change their models and everyone accepts it. When we're wrong, we lose hundreds of millions of dollars. Place your bet accordingly."
     
    #13     Apr 29, 2020
    traderob likes this.
  4. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Adaptive models.

    "Its going to rain tomorrow".

    Wake up without a cloud in the sky.

    "I've adapted my model to say it will be sunny today."
     
    #14     Apr 29, 2020
    LacesOut likes this.
  5. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    ITT, models aren't allowed to adjust projections based on preventive measures taken.
     
    #15     Apr 29, 2020
  6. Daxtrader

    Daxtrader

    The models assumed social distancing measures, they always did, even at 2 million.
     
    #16     Apr 29, 2020
  7. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    The models showing 2 million deaths assumed NO MITIGATION MEASURES
     
    #17     Apr 29, 2020
  8. Daxtrader

    Daxtrader

    What mitigation measures has nyc taken? Subways running, grocery stores packed everyday. It's all bullshit. 2 million projection was always a joke.
     
    #18     Apr 29, 2020
  9. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    So 43 states have stay at home orders.... including NY. And you are trying to claim there are no mitigation measures. Unbelievable.
     
    #19     Apr 29, 2020
  10. Daxtrader

    Daxtrader

    I live in nyc. Subways are packed everyday at rush hour, always were. Grocery stores are packed everyday, shoulder to shoulder. The 6 feet bullshit rule is only applied outside the store while waiting to get in. Home Depot is open. Every major chain is open, except the small coffee shop they shut down. You're an idiot if you think nyc is some light switch they just shut off.
     
    #20     Apr 29, 2020
    Tsing Tao likes this.