Several years ago I wrote a book with Adrienne Laris Toghraie called Traders Secrets. In this book we interviewed 14 traders who did well enough trading to leave a real job and start trading full time. In this book I analyzed their trading methods. Adrienne analyzed the interview using NLP. In the interview she also asked how lessons learned from early failure lead to their final success. It is a great book It is available on TradersStudio.com http://www.tradersstudio.com/Produc...ID/5/psnavcmd/CatalogItemDetails/Default.aspx
In my trading I focus on making money. As an example for leveraged money making in commodities I choose the 5 min chart of ES primarily. The reasoning sequence I founded my efforts upon is as follows. 1. money is made by price changing in either direction. 2. you have to be in the market to make money. 3. be in the market at all times when signals are given. 4. use a leading indicator of price to guide making money. 5. always be on the right side of the market. 6. extract profits in a timely manner and then immediately begin another segment of profit taking. 7. repeat a routine all the time and have closure at the end of every cycle of the routine. 8. The first part of the routine is to get a data set. 9. The second part of the routine is to analyze the data set with known truths in my set of knowledge. 10 The third step is to pair a known conclusion with the truth from the analysis. 11. The last (fourth) step is to take timely action (most often hold) to bring closure to the routine cycle. 12. repeat 7 through 11 as soon as possible. 13. Recognize that only two operations are required to stay on the right side of the market: hold from the beginning to the end of each price movement and reverse when the movement ends and a new movement begins. 14. Practice market wash orders when there is no price movement since it does not cost anything. I do not construe NLP as you do. For you and almost all people in this thread it is conceived of as a pep talk artificial confidence building exercise. for most research and development types of NLP workers, the NLP is studied and advanced as it relates to a person's knowledge, skills and experience (in a market money making context) and more generally with respect to a well balanced life where a person's potential can be realized. So NLP largely focuses on steps 4 through 14 for me. You may be a trader who focuses on entries and exits. I am not. I focus on "hold" and "reversals". you may take a 5 min ES chart to see how many trades I do a day. It will include all of your trades and many more. print a chart. With a rule and ball point, draw lines on the price chart that connect extreme consecutive price value starting with the BO end of bar 4 relative to bar 3. There are 81 bars and you will draw 20 to 40 lines per day on average. Add the values of the veetical change of all lines you drew. Subtract a tick for each line plus 1. Calculate the net profit for the day. Consider my skills. For example, figure that I am only half as good as I could be. Divide the net by 2. If I am worse divide it again by 2. Keep dividing it by 2 until you get to what you make a day. The difference in our profits per day is how I used NLP to gain knowledge, skills and experience. NLP allowed me to use my potential to think in "picutres" of what is going on. This is the What, How, When and Why the market works and how it is my job to do what is required to take what is offered out of the markets. I have never considered edge trading and I track about 80 edges to understand them. I know some edges and I know that they collectively all together cover what i do everyday all the day long. So individually they do not do as well as taking money that is offered out of the market continually. I have done the thinking to make what I do a mechanical process. In doing this I discovered that the work of Pascal does not apply to the markets. Instead, with six deegrees of freedom as an input and foure degrees of freedom as the trading out put, the automated approach internally goes through five stages to, in a logic construct swell to 70 degrees of freedom where no more than 5 are applicable at any time and where the logic steers and focuses on the pertinent application of logic at all times. The above is the articulation, mathematically, of the set of truths I have acquired over time for monitoring data sets, analyzing data sets with the possible conclusion set, the pairs of decisions for each conclusion, and the set of timely actions that result from the set of decisions that are possible. As I looked at the markets, I gained knowledge, skills and experience. In about 25 years I came to the place where I could do the required logic schematics over 15 years ago. In the last fifteen years I have added some efficiency and effectiveness refinements. This post is not what anyone writes in books or reads when they buy books. Learning is a process that occurs over time. In position trading stocks where I began, I did not have any period of time where I had not learned enough to make at least 10% on a trade which on average lasted 6 to 8 days. So you see that with very little money i became well off in a short time and have not had formal salaried jobs since the first five years after school. There is one footnote that is important. I was one of very few people at IBM during the mainframe era that could trobleshoot 700 series mainframes from the console with out reference to the stacks of "D" size logic schematics. This means that FYI, I can readily convert any market activiety to Boolean expressions on the run. To day excel spread sheets can be populated with such stuff. The other consideration is that backtesting uses the wrong kind of mathematics to deal with making money using the reults of the artificial efforts of backtesting. To make money there is not concept of dealing with the future that is required. This is a very tough nut to swallow by most people. Almost all edge trading work that is done uses the wrong mathematics because there is a mistaken idea that estimates of future activities are a requirement. The work being done this way is mostly related to "convneience" and people applying what they already know to deal with an opportunity that they do not understand. If you can get off the Tony Robbins stupid orientation for NLP. He is just an inspirational leader for people who need inspiration to do their jobs. Stuff like sales and management, etc.. The markets require knowledge, skills and experience to stay on the right side of the market and not speculation and Pascal.
Grob, Why arn't you trading the euro then? At 400 million a click you could really impress me. Do that 30-50 times a day - at about $20 000 a pip (assuming your not barking out orders for operators to click on 5 different platforms simulataneously = $2 billion a click - 20,000 cars per click) and then i'll be impressed. But can your method be adapted for that arena (I dont see why not except you would have 288 bars to play with instead of 81) SP is more rangebound - Euro trends like a mo. f*****. Lovely post by the way.
People are always telling me I should trade the Euro or the Russell or whatever the latest fad happens to be. There are two factors in trading that cannot be separated and that is risk and reward. If it goes up fast it can come down fast. You can compensate for range with size. The huge liquidity of ES makes it the instrument of choice for some of us. Besides Jack has a leading indicator for ES. A pretty good reason to stick with it, imo.
I have no idea how to trade the euro... Regarding impressing. I'm sorry my time commenting to you has so little value. I wasn't trying to impress you or anyone else. I am 73 and just winding down over the next period of months. I can't imagine why anyone has needs to be impressed nor needs to impress anyone. Your response is interesting. The more bars = more money in the euro market is such a strange conclusion. Why would anyone even want to trade the euro since there is no leading indicator of its movements? I keep my expectations rather low for most ET participants but I still keep getting surprises as to how irrational it is for most people.
I bought the book after listening to Ms. Toghraie at a seminar. It's a good little read, although it should be noted that all the traders in the book already had winning systems and were mostly profitable in their trading. The additional mental training helped them move to the "next level" and much bigger profits. I think it's important to note that without a winning system, no level of mental prep work will make a unprofitable trader profitable.
NZD I read your recent series of posts. You seem to come down on the wrong side of everything from a reasoning point of view. naturally, everyone can have any viewpoint they want. What I call wrong just means it is different than the viewpoint I have and I am making a lot of money. I book was mentioned that has just under the minimum number of cases (20) for drawing conclusions with statisitcal significance. Also, luckily, it is not a SR sample but just a book to show how individuals making money using different ways after having early failure for some reasons. You may want to read it as a means of plotting 14 paths with milestones. It could give you an idea of how your positions are running away from those biographed. I always have a bunch of people whose trading I monitor. I assign them numbers according to the # of times they double per year. Position trading 6's are particularly noteworthy to follow (this means they have 64 times their initial capital at the beginning of the year)
You will be surprised to find out that most people start trading without a winning system. What most often takes a person from a state of failure to a state of success is "mental prep". Lets say even, further, that as in the book a lot of those biographed came to use similar concepts (not theirs originally). This is a further example of "mental prep" There are roughly 8 series/parallel paths for doubling performance beginning with any level of competence. Naturally this adds up to about nothing if the starting point is just marginally above breakeven. it is a long road from the beginning to having the eight doublings at work for you. Most people leave the main stem of acquiring effectiveness and efficiency because they get trapped by one of more myths or trading and wind up out on the end of a branch.
Grob109, You comments have more value than anyone elseâs on this board for me â When I first started on this path I remember reading a post on ET written by duard who stated: âread Grobâ â and he sounded like an intelligent guy. So Over the last year or so I have read your posts and they have influenced me in positive ways â so I am happy we are communicating. It is true that volume data donât exist for it â but the candlesticks have much more clarity than S+P candlesticks. The second charts and 3 minute charts have got VERY precise and clear candlestick formations (especially on the most liquid pairs) â what more does a trader need (perhaps 10% oscillator study â but that is all). Lol, if you put your mind to it I am sure within a day or so you would figure it out. Can you monitor me?