Discussion in 'Trading' started by Port1385, Sep 23, 2008.
Anybody who wants to make serious money should buy far out expiration (like 2014) crude futures contracts.
Maybe not now, but when oil goes south of $100 due to a serious recession. Opec won't let the prices go lower than $90 probably, so your downside is limited. We saw what happened with $90/ per 42 gal crude recently: shortages on low inventory.
So you will make a killing when oil finally gets to $200+ a barrel in the coming years. Easiest money you every made, and more profitable than long term stock investing. Then use your profits $$$$ to buy guns and gold and freeze dried food because it will be the EOTWAWKI.
Whatever. Like they say don't ASSUME anything. All you'll do is make and ASS out of U and ME. In this case just you.
check back with u after 6 years of fed monetary debasement and the global realization of peakoil
$200 oil in 2014 = $170 oil now (inflation)
not that unlikely
Mate leave trading oil to the us who know whats we are doing!
Seriously do not even go near oil, it will fuking burn your account to nothing, and then still come and beat you up some more!!
But if your stubborn please please go and buy oil now at a few Â£10 t Â£100 per tick, and then when your a millionaire in a few weeks il be your butler!! : D
(Il even take the other side of your buy trade!)
Oil isn't going anywhere near $200 for the exact same reason taht it didn't last time, and that i had been saying since the 135s, and why i made so much selling it off all teh spikes up, and then flat out crushing it back down....
OIL CAN ONLY BE $200 PER BARREL IF ORDINARY PEOPLE CAN ACTUALLY AFFORD TO BUY IT FOR THAT MUCH!!
And look at the economy mate....
The USA is going to 2nd world country when we are barely at $100, its in trillions and 100s of trillions of debt, and there is basically now quick way out of this, except a washout and restart of economy.
Opec 'could' manipulate the oil price by just cutting and hacking away at production, but saudi arabia is way way wayyyy smarter than the USA or the UK at business, and so they wont do that.
You want to know why??
Because in business there are 2 flows-
For the saudis they get that oil out the ground and barreled up and ready to sell for something like $6 - $8 per barrel!!
So they dont give a fuk what the price per barrel is, as long as its over $30s + the lower the price x the higher revenue number of barrels sold = roughly same overal profit as when oil was high price per barrel but barely and sold.
continue thinking like tt, and one dya you will be in the poorhouse
If your going to be a purely fundamental trader than you can stake your claim and enter a long position in this market. However, remember that fundamental traders have to use gigantic stop losses. I'd trade with the trend. go short..
Just use pit options. Spreads were .40 when I bought in Jan, for Dec 2010 calls, and sold in April or May.
.40 each time basically, yeah its a wide spread ($400) but if its a long term trade and your target is many times larger, its not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things.
Port is saying buy oil? If this goes the same as his recommendation to by Fannie and Freddie in the 20s and AIG all the way down, then oil should be at $50 by this afternoon.
this must be one of the most ignorant posts ever on ET - and we all know that this is hell of an accomplishment.
it is funny how quickly you became an oil expert - after trading according to recommendation of anonymous poster here on ET - you know what i mean...
kxvid advice is actually as sound as it can get. godspeed
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