Its really a lot easier than some of you are making it. No math necessary. In situation (a) you require four different suits in a particular order. That means you have two conditions. In situation (b) you want four different suits. You require a single condition. Situation (b) is much easier to obtain. -didn't notice someone mentioned this.
Neither option is any good at all because the probability is shit. What you should be doing is finding probable ways of making money
If you just think about it, it becomes obvious that option B has the better chance (the one where the suits can be in any order). But, if my figuring is correct, then: The chance of hitting <b>option A</b> is about <b>0.0044</b> The chance of hitting <b>option B</b> is about <b>0.1082</b> (also assuming you have a deck with 13 of each suit, i.e. a "straight deck") Does anyone disagree?
In engineering class on a final exam there was an extra credit question to the following effect: In Malaysia 7 persons are killed by falling coconuts on the palm lined beaches every ten years while sitting under coconut trees. Lots of "givens" are provided regarding population of residents, tourist counts, terminal velocity, the average and tallest height of the coconut trees on the beaches, the distance from the top of the tree to where the coconuts are attached, the velocity and frequency of the wind which at times causes coconuts to fall, the decibels of the sound of a coconut breaking loose from its attachment from the tree, the speed of the sound, the average person's reaction time, the average person's time to move from the point they hear it and identify the sound and beging to move, the time it takes them to move far enough away, blah blah blah. The question is "What would you reccomend to people to avoid being killed by a falling coconut in Malaysia? My answer was "Tell them not to sit under the tree." I was the only student who got it right. Screw all the calculations. What's common sense? Even if you run a gazillion calculations you still have to verify your work with common sense. Hardheaded people who don't will fail miserably.