And to add insult to injury, this is what Natural Gas did after I got out. Classic mistake of holding onto losers and cutting short the winners. Albert
The futility of it all is how much luck can help you along. I bought CAMP at around $4.00 and really forgot about it. It's in my IRA which is kind of a slow trade vehicle. I bought it because it seems to peak every four years going to the 40s and 50s. I wonder what congressman works that district? Anyway I bought some more at 6 and the damn thing went to 9 the NEXT DAY. I immediately sold those shares to lock in the windfall and while I am waiting around to buy some more shares it screams as high as 16 yesterday. No TA, no fundamentals, no tips, no nothing. Just looking at a long term chart and saying hmmm. So I am sitting on about a 4 banger looking for another entry. It's good to be lucky but you keep looking over your shoulder waiting for the hammer to fall. Albert
The MaxDraw is the actual drawdown and not the theoretical limit, which in reality can be 100 points away if some catastrophic event occurs. That Maxdraw represents what I actually had to endure if I sat in front of the computer. The stop is just liquid courage. Albert, you are referring to MAE(maximum adverse excursion). This is the term commonly used. The other side is called MFE(maximum favorable excursion). You can read about this in the book by John Sweeney titled, "Maximum Adverse Excursion". Michael B.
I will evaluate whether to go long or short at 20 bar highs and lows as these seem like natural resting points. Could you elaborate on this? Michael B.
As Walther said in this thread tight stops will be larger on these 30-60m bars...I like the 1:3 risk/reward ratio however.... Michael B.
To ElectricSavant- You are right, MAE is the correct term. Max drawdown should refer to my equity run. I don't know if you are teasing me on the "evaluate at the 20 bar high or low" statement but that's ok either way. I deserve it. I let it run away from me twice on my losers and that really is unacceptable. I think I'll go throw a chair or something. To get back to a serious response, the reality is that nobody really knows where prices are going. I think I read somewhere, probably in one of those Schwager books, a response from a big time trader that he thought he knew where prices were headed only over the next six minutes( I wish I did) And that was from someone with alot more resources than me. So I need a natural inflection point. A place where people might get excited or change their minds or whatever. You can use indicators for that but I am overwhelmed by their numbers, nuances and conflicting messages. So I am not particularly confident in them. This is simple, there's no mistaking whether you are there or not. There's no counts or cycles etc. Just a simple buy or sell decision. Since markets, per conventional wisdom, tend to oscillate 70% of the time I probably should fade the high or low. But when it blows through that 20 B H/L it's gone and you're left wishing you'd been in. So now my bias is to go with the breakout, use the other end of the bar that broke through as my stop and at least it gets me in early. I've thought of two additional rules. If the breakout goes nowhere for 6 bars, then get out. Period. Also, I really should be a little more particular in my selections. Try and pick a market that is really moving in the next highest time frame, which for me would be the daily. Hope that helps you as much as it helped me. Albert
I don't know if you are teasing me on the "evaluate at the 20 bar high or low I excuse myself if it came out like that. I was being serious, and I appreciate this thread. I just find it hard to hold the 1:3 on these 30-60min bars....Do you have any insight? I think your initial stop does not use 1:3 but you trail up to it? Right? Have you considered a more efficient tick bar combo that might identify if your in rally mode at entry and exit time? I remember you mentioning something about the 10bar ATR.....if it is not 1:3 at entry time do you pass? Again, I apologize if I slip up with writing....its hard to put into words tactfully what I am thinking, even though I put a lot of thought into my posts. Michael B.
Well right now you are right that my Risk:Reward is at 3:1 when the real ratio should be 1:3. It happens. I actually feel pretty good about repeating what I did a couple of years ago. I'm not smarter as my first few trades have shown, but I have a steady income now and that helps the confidence. Really, when I was having those 20 and 30 thousand dollar days, I was just shooting from the hip. It just so happened that I was also trading with the trend in all time frames and maximizing my margin. So it was a mix of good and bad. But the key to all of that was that I was having so much fun that I couldn't wait to get to work. I was literally giddy at starting up the computer and seeing what was going on in the market. Natural excitement or gambling addiction? Hmmmm. Albert
Albert...LOL (embarrassed) I corrected all my posts to put what I meant.....1:3 You do not need to explain yourself....the fact that you did what you did in the past....was a great education for you....don't let these "so-called" Elitetraders badger you here. Michael B.
I hope you continue this thread....I too work full-time and find myself pulled to trading throughout the day every chance I get...I feel it is a good balance though.....I like both jobs....But my full-time job is out of responsibility and my trading job is out of love and passion for trading, if I may say. As far a the gambling emotion....I try to fight that by systemizing things.. Keep up the good work, and I think you and I are more alike than you think... Michael B.