My plan is to trade 30 minute bars in both stocks and commodities. I will evaluate whether to go long or short at 20 bar highs and lows as these seem like natural resting points. Stops are placed at the 20 bar high or low initially and followed by trailing stops or, if in a low range period, by taking profits proactively at a 10 bar ATR. Since I work away from my computer alot, there will be plenty of days that I may miss obvious trades. Oh well. I don't believe in TA being a very good PREDICTOR of anything. It really is an excuse for action. That is what makes it so beguiling when you already have bias. What I really believe in is myself. That's why there's no SYSTEM here. I am the system. To make a trade you just need a good risk reward setup, hopefully in the 3:1 range. That edge can be in dollars or frequency of winners to losers. So, I plan on listing in real time the account size, win:loss ratios, average and max winners and losers, and max number of winning and losing trades in a row. Trades will be accompanied by pictures of the associated chart. Questions and suggestions are always welcome. I don't blush easily. Albert
That's the 64K question isn't it? I can tell you that the fade is the play usually, but when you're wrong, ouch. That is why the stop is so tight. The best trades for me have been to follow it (breakout ala turtles) get stopped out for a small loss, then reverse. Don't know why, it's just worked out that way. Also helps to be on a slow bar such as a 30 minute or 60 minute bar.
What futures do you want to trade ? Trading 30 min bars will not work with tight stops . Stop size should be average size of intraday swing plus 25% of it. Good luck, Walter
I trade anything with enough liquidity to get in and out. Most of the time my list comes from those on the CRB, that way I can use relative strength to decide between competing opportunities. Occasionally, though I will venture out to the DAX and Bonds. NQ and ES, of course, are the champs for liquidity and ease of getting data. But you can even trade off the index itself if all you're doing is waiting for 20 bar highs and lows. You'll see. Two years ago I made 375K trading half the time off NQ charts and half the time off the index. Lost it all in 15 minutes when Gspan made that intermeeting cut 01/03/01. REAL PAIN! Albert
Attached is the chart I was looking at when I put on an order to sell 2 Mar 04 NQ @1433.00limit (10:10am). If filled the stop is at 1437.00. As of 10:25am I am not filled even though it has gotten to 1432.50 Albert
Filled at 1433.00 at 10:34 approximately. Not positive since I don't get fill times at my broker. Stop is at 1437.00 because the 20 bar high is at 1436.50. The 10 bar ATR is 5.14 so if things get dicey I'll bail there. Otherwise my target is 1411. Albert
After seeing the NQ move up to the upper line and almost stop me out I decided to move the stop down and, accordingly, was obliged at 1429. The attached chart shows what i saw when I got back to the computer. $160 winner but the risk reward was only 1:1. Will see how that pans out over time. I will post a spreadsheet tonight that shows how the system is performing. Next 20 Bar low is 1420.50 and the high is still at 1436.50. Albert