That is very presumptuous. A lot of people are short treasuries right now since they have been going down like a rock the last 6 months. The irony in your argument is the Fed is actually leading people into that trade. I mean if you are going to buy into the Keynesian philosophy like I guess you are and that everything is going to be rosy and the economy is back on track and set to expand, then you HAVE to buy into the idea that rates are going higher. No the real doom and gloomers, like Mark Fabian are LONG treasuries because they think this market is going to go to shit and there is going to be a flight to quality back to bonds. The problem here is you "think" you have this mapped out but your theories are all over the map and have no consistency to them. And you draw conclusions from very small data sets (major faux paux).
So now I;m a Keynesian? I don't know what his monetary or economic views are, but I do know that I wouldn't invest in his fund. And it's true, I do like to draw patterns out of very small data sets. I;ve found that I;m pretty good at it, actually.
Can't develop such strong opinions like 'long time bear'. This defies the saying that "MARKET IS THE MASTER" i.e. price dictates what positions should be taken and what closed. Atleast in the TA schools of thought. Also, since 2000 we are going though the 18-20 year commodity cycle leg up. In this cycle, markets will go up and after 2-3 years give it all back and in the end of the cycle pretty much be where they started or meager up or down. This is a good cycle for macro traders like Soros and not for buy and hold types. By 2018-2020, the commodity prices will start another 20 year leg down and that time markets will jettison off the not look back like from 1982 to 2000. That is the time to take good blue chip positions and leave the solid dough for old age or grandkids.
Don't you think using larger samples would make you better at it. Seeing patterns your way introduces more randomness ... why do it?
Well you implied it by ranting against what you thought were "his" views. I'm sure you based that off of 3 minutes of "Bull and Bear" on Fox. And please stop moving the goal posts. You started the thread with he is getting killed (which he is not). You then went on to rant against his economic views (which you claim you don't know). You identify him as a trading God (nobody on ET other then me and Denner and I guess you, know who he is). You then claim he is trading his politics (which you don't know what they are). You follow that up with he is fighting the tape and then honest to God, you can't make this shit up, actually cite positions which are going WITH the tape and in a major way. And your closing arguments are you would not invest in his fund. LOL. This is why I'm a dick sometimes on ET Denner. I have to read crap like this constantly and then make an effort to respond. If people would just back up their statements with cold hard facts and intelligent deductive reasoning, I would come across more positive. As for you billy, next time you start a thread, outline your facts ahead ahead of time on the off chance you get called out on them. And fyi, you didn't find any accurate patterns in that data set. LOL.
Most traders are probably good pattern recognizers. It's not the only skill required, but most poeple on this forum are probably some version of NT or NF. But good rules of thumb are hard to systematize.