Thank you Db. I am trying to learn something everyday and see an improvement in my knowledge at the end of each week. I feel that my learning is on an upward trend at the moment thanks to yourself and the group. There are retracements and hinges along the way, but I feel confident that I am learning from my mistakes. A lot still to do, but I never thought that I would find time just flying by, while I watched a 1 min chart.
Wedensday 12th Mar 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review Pre market open Highs on the 15min at 81 & 91. Further highs at 726. Next big low at 640 Also in the hour before the open we could not break below 72. 1. On the open price shot up to just below 82 and was rejected. This was previous support on the 15 min and 50% of 72 to 91. 2. Down to 73 and back up to 81, with a lower rejection this time. May become a hinge. 3. No hinge. Broke below 72, and retraced it to reject it from below. 4. Fell to 62, and tested this with retracement and a higher low. We did have hourly lows around 62 from a few weeks ago, but I did not consider these to be important before the open. This is a case of letting the live price tell me what is important. 5. Support line break with retracement for a long around 69.5. 6. We moved back up to 72 where it held but demand line was broken, which would lead to a long exit. Interestingly, 72 was the 50% of the down move and rejections of 50% often happen fairly quickly, but this held around 72 for a while before going up. Something to watch out for before exiting. 7. Reached opening highs retraced and went into a hinge above 77. Price movement slowed down a lot at this point. 8. Came down from 90 and broke the demand line, halting around 83. I saw a retracement (b) back to 88 at around 10:45, but other saw a retracement at 10:41 (a) with a non-triggered short, and a corresponding long. I would have not entered the long but would have entered a short below the swing low somewhere below 83, which would have stopped out. One big issue from today happened when we set up for a short that was not triggered. There was an immediate long which I did not see. This has happened other times before. I was too caught up looking in one direction for the expected short. I need to start looking at the potential failure points while I am setting up shorts or longs. Not just seeing them as exit points, but at what point does the exit become an opposite entry.
Thursday 13th Mar 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review Pre market open Highs at 26 and 40 Lows at 17 and 10 Nice hourly channel chart provided by Niko shows we slightly above the middle, with the channel bottom below 680. 1. Just before the open we broke out above 21 with a retracement for a long. This was not triggered and we had a lower high and a demand line break at the open. 2. Bounced off 14, a pre-market low on the 1 min, and back up to 21. This is similar to the big swings we had at the open yesterday morning. 3. Rejected the opening low with a higher low, and back to mid point at 18 and down again for a potential short at 15. 4. Bounced off overnight support at 10. Retracement for further short below 10, not triggered. 5. Higher rejection of 10 and long above 13.5. This was halted at 17 which was pre-market lows. 6. Moved down again to reject 10, with a higher low. I need to investigate the behaviour of these rejections in back-testing. I have noticed that they often allow a long above the rejection bar. 7. 10:03. We have higher highs and higher lows and the support line from the open is broken with a retracement for a long. But we don't make it above 20 and then have to exit on a lower high. Hinge formed. 8. DL break with retracement for short at 15.Went through 10 and rejected at 08. 9. Up to 14 (50%) and rejected. Another hinge formed.Another rejection of 10, which has stopped multiple attempts today. 10. Just to note that at 10:25 we finally closed below 10 for first time in a few days. Highs were getting lower all the time with multiple tests of support. 11. This was a comment from Db on something I hadn't spotted. 10:32 fell out of the hinge and didn't re-enter, so short around 8.5. 12. Proceeded to fall to 95, with a retracement to 700 for a short opportunity. Another note from Db that the short at 98.5 would have been scratched when we didn't make a lower low. Another one to watch out for, since scratching a the right time greatly improves the chances of finishing with a positive day. After that we moved into a range from 95 to 700. There was a lot going on today, and it was hard to write and watch the charts. Great input from all the guys, and even got a few recommendations for good books to read.
Friday 14th Mar 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review Pre market open We reached the long term channel mid-point yesterday, and drifted into a channel afterwards. In the morning we drifted down to lows of 33 and back to a high of 47 1. Right before the open we had a double bottom, and then on the open we bounced back up to bottom of morning range. 2. Retraced to around the 50% spot and held. It looked like we were going into a range, and then hadly we moved up to 56 where we had a double top. 3. The demand line was broken and we had a retracement for a possible short at about 43 with a chance of reaching the opening lows. 4. Through the opening lows and reversed immediately. Support line break this time with retracement for a long to the top of the range. In reality I would not like to enter around the mid point of a range, because it is the a high risk entry. 5. Double top below the previous highs. Now some would short this straight away, but soon after we have a demand line break and a retracement to allow another. This area is another one of those information risk Vs price risk times that require testing and experience. 6. At this point I felt that the support line had been broken, but because we could not take out the previous swing high (LSH), I would have stayed in a short. 7. Fell continuously to 23, where we stalled, moved right and had a double bottom breakdown to reject 21. After this we retraced back up to the previous highs, with retracements along the way for entries. I had noted a fanned demand line broken by 11:57 with a retracement for a short. This differed from others view of the demand line and I will need to check my demand and support lines closely in testing.
Just make sure you are not jumping to conclusions, at your stage lots of things end up finding their way into the "rules", but then you find out that you have "never" tested those thing for real, so you never know you are missing opportunities.
Tuesday 18th Mar 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review A belated Happy Saint Patrick's Day to everyone. This week I plan on back testing as much as possible using SLA. I know that I still have other thoughts in my head from previous experience and testing, which I notice while looking at NQ in real time, but I will try to avoid letting these interfere, or at least note the times where I think they are influencing my descisions. Today:- 1. On the open we have a break of the morning support line and a retracement to give a long at 61. This reached 64 and came back down. The descision on scratching or continuing is one for testing this week. 2. We moved on through this and aimed for yesterday's high at 73. We were stopped below 73 and retraced. We had a break of the demand line after the retracement. 3. We then rose from 64 to 74, where we retraced to allow a long above 74. This moved into a range 4. We have a break of the fanned demand line with a retracement, and a possible short, but this is not triggered due to a higher high. 5. Exit from this range is one of our discussion points from today. We can chance the SL break, with a long above 77 (possibly scratched), or we can wait for the exit of the range and a higher retracement at 84. 6. We moved into a range where again entries from line breaks with retracements came up within this range. 7. There is an SL break and retracement for a long at 86.5 , however we would often wait for a break out above 88, to look for an entry. The subtleties of when to respect the range to avoid constant scratches, and when to apply the SLA before range exit will take greater experience to master.
Wedensday 19th Mar 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review Pre market open Overnight highs of 705, and then moved in a 4 point range. If we go above this then the next highs are at 720. Nearest lows around 92 1. Opened below 700 and then quickly fell downwards. No SLA entry, but could have shorted the retracement and entered at 94. 2. Halted at 88, but the SL from the open didn't break until 9:49. We then retraced and made a higher low, allowing a long entry. 3. Moved up to 702 and stayed above the lows of the overnight range for a while, until it broke out of the lows, but it was rejected. We now had a demand line from 9:53 and at 10:12 we broke this and had a retracement to go short. 4. We went down to 93 and halted, retraced and fell again. 5. Broke through the opening lows at 88, and down to just above 85, and rejected. Back above 88, steep SL broken. Could enter on a retracement here or wait until the longer term SL is broken later.