Monday 19th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review This week I will try to improve the review to include what I am doing right and wrong in each trade, and where I can improve for the next days. Today we had a move from 570 up to 600 in the morning, but I could not capture much of it. Reasonably happy with my trading today. Scratches saved me from mistakes and trades that didn't work out. 1. Just before the open we had a rejection of our morning highs at 78. I would not normally enter a trade just before the open, but it is possible to short of the rejection. I would be wary of a sudden fast move on the open moving way beyond any stop loss that I would set. But these valid trades before the open are something that I should watch for in future, even if I don't take them. 2. We had a retracement for a long here. I put a long on even though we were approaching the overnight highs above 590, and could have a quick failure. As always support and resistance is only there when it happens, and not because we draw a line on the chart. 3. The demand line from the lows was very steep and tight. I realised then that I was undecided in where to exit. It seemed to hasty to exit directly on such a steep break, because I have been trying to avoid exiting too quickly since last week. I waited until we had a lower high along with the line break, which really is the place to go short, but I was thinking about my exit first of all. Exit descisions need to be made in advance. 4. There was no big drop, instead price started making a tight range for a number of minutes below the overnight highs, before attempting to break above the overnight highs again, and failing. 5. After we broke below the congestion we had a retracement for a short which is stopped out quickly. Better to be stopped out quickly than stopped out for a large amount. Should I take that trade, when we are moving back to the mean of the opening range? Maybe not. 6. Supply line break with retracement that held above the overnight highs. Entered long here. The 600 mark proves difficult to get past again. I left my stop just below the supply line from the open, and it eventually triggered at 96. 7. We got a retracement after the demand line break, but traders put the price into a very tight 2 point range for 8 minutes, so I would not go short from a break down of this until we have another retracement. 8. Entered a long at 604, which was stopped out in a few minutes. I think this trade was an error even if it had worked. The retracement was a right tick one, which I have not used much. When I stand back from it, it looks like an attempt to get a trade on when none is available. I need to remove these, even on the occasions that they workout by accident. 9. We have held above 600 for more than 15 minutes. This looks like potential strength for a move upwards. 10. Long at 605.25 on the retracement from the breakout of our congestion. Not expecting anything of this trade, given that we are now after 11am. This one moved up straight away. As always we can never tell which trade is going to work, just have to take them as they appear.
Tuesday 20th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review Price rose yesterday, but couldn't quite break the previous highs at 624. We did make it to 621 overnight, but we could not hold that level for more than a than 20 minutes or so. Since then we have tested the low mark of 607, which has held as a low since yesterday afternoon. A breakout below 607 may see a large fall, because we have held above that level for many hours which will be noted by traders. A break above the overnight highs may test the recent swing high of 624. If we pass this we have a good distance to travel to the next big highs.
Tuesday 20th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review Today for a long while we revolved around a mean of about 607 which was our overnight low. I tried a few trades which didn't work out, and I eventually noticed that a basic day of plotting the lines and using SLA would have worked out better today. Need to get the balance right. Overall I'm not unhappy with today. I didn't fire out trades like crazy, and stops were reasonable to keep the losses small. As always I will hopefully learn from it and try to improve tomorrow. 1. We opened at the lower end of our overnight range after a fall from a high of around 18 over the previous hour. This led me to expect a test of the lows, but instead we opened up to reject previous swing high and the 50% point at 14. I could short this, but I had decided to wait for a possible break of the overnight highs/lows and retracement. Generally would not take that trade, so I don't feel that I missed out. 2. We broke the overnight lows, but instead of a retracement and short, we have a reversal at the lows back into the range. I could have put a long on here for a possible run to the mean. This would have been stopped for more or less breakeven, since it turned so quickly at 613. Sometimes these trades work well . 3. The lower high is followed by a retracement. Again a short could be put on here. Maybe today I am a little hesitant. I will wait for the break below 607. 4. Here we have a break below 607 with a retracement that goes back above 607 but can't hold on. I put a short on here at 605.75. I am happy with the reasons for the entry, but the price returned to the entry point after a few minutes of not getting past the recent swing lows, so was exited for breakeven. 5. Another retracement for a short at 603. I left the stop at 604 this time since we had past the previous swing lows. Unfortunately stopped out after a 7 minutes. The supply line is also broken. The double or treble bottom could be a point of exit, or the break of the swing high. The overlap appears to be swallowing my trades today. 6. Here we had a retracement for a long after the supply line break. However it seemed to me that the trade was failing to go up and we may be having a DTDB. Obviously there is long somewhere around 605 at 10:11 (the 15:11 bar on my chart) but I didn't take it. I should focus on what I know and not think about trading the dogs until I know them better. 7. After a hinge around the mean of 607, I entered a long on a retracement from a breakout. This was stopped soon enough. An SLA trade could have been taken earlier.
Wedensday 21st May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview After the morning hinge yesterday we tested the highs at 624, and failed, falling to 584 before recovering some of the fall before the close. Overnight we have settled close to the midpoint of the high and low of yesterdays action (604), and have no direction yet for the open. Overnight we have been heading up but have halted and made a lower high after reaching the congestion from yesterday. Time to try and trade again, with the SLA to guide me.
Wedensday 21st May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Today the aim was to be calm, although I never aim to be stressed. We did test the previous highs of 624, but could not make a move past at the time of writing. We have stayed in a relatively tight area since we first tested 24 before 10am. I only marked 2 trades today, and I am pleased that I didn't try to drive down in the road to nowhere today. 1. Opened with a rejection of the midpoint at 604, followed by a supply line break and retracement. I guess I could go long around 609, but trying to give the price a bit of time to make its range today. 2. We made it easily through the overnight high, before turning when we got back into yesterday's congestion. We have a retracement for a potential long that I would not take today, because the bars are wide, and it is easy to be stopped out here. 3. This indescision should be sorted out soon. I have a feeling for up since we can't get back into our overnight range below 611. But we are still overlapping bars at this stage. 4. We have a retracement here for the first long after the early morning volatility. We have highs around 624 to watch for. 5. We turned at the highs breaking our demand line. By my SLA, I would put a short on the 15:01 bar, which was stopped out on the next bar. Time to sit and watch for something clearer. I could have waited for the demand line from the open to be broken, but I felt it was a valid trade off the tighter demand line, with a rejection of the highs, and would probably do the same again. 6. I'm looking at this and seeing traders getting into a very tight range. In real time its like everyone has gone to the bathroom at the same time. There should be a breakout when they get back. Wash your hands guys. 7. Back to test 24 again. Eventually we made it past and up to 27, only to turn back again. I am waiting for a breakout with retracement, but that may not happen at this time of day. 8. Back below 24. No direction apparent yet.
Thursday 22nd May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview --------------------------------------------------------- We have moved above the highs of 24 yesterday and the next highs would be at 58 and 69. We have retraced over 70% of the fall that we had in march and april now which should keep buyers happy, and may suck in the hopeful herd, looking to join the party. Overnight we made it as far as 45 before faling, and we are currently in a range between 34 and 40. Any support below will probably start to affect price when it gets near the previous highs of 24.
Thursday 22nd May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay day today. I missed the trade back into the range after the open, but the rest of the day was good. I tried to keep to mainly SLA entries, although we had reversal options at the extremes of the range. 1. At the open we stayed within our tight morning range of 34 to 40. we eventually moved to the upper side of the range, before breaking out above 40. 2. The first retracement is near to the overnight highs, but I placed a short and let price decide where it wants to go. After reaching 48, it fell back and broke the demand line triggering the exit. 3. We had a retracement soon after for a short, which made a steady move to the overnight lows, before turning and exiting. A good, by the rules SLA trade. 4. After the retracementI entered a long which failed after a few minutes. I knew that we were beside the 50% point and having touble getting through before I placed the trade. An earlier retracement before the 50% would have been preferable, but I will take what appears. After this is i didn't make any entries. We were close to the mean for a long while even though we were moving slowly upwards. It was 11am before the highs were broken, and there was not follow through from there.
Friday 23rd May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We continued our rise yesterday and are not far below the next highs at 69. A move above this leads us to the next potential resistance at 700 and above. But we have made large gains this week, and may be due a retracement. Our main congestion starts at about 24 if we get through more recent congestion. Yesterday ranged from 31 up to 60, with a midpoint at 46. Before the close we moved back to 48 and have not passed that point again during the night in spite of several tests. I will watch for the action if price breaks below this point. We reached a high of 55 in the early morning, and have fallen off since then. The range is fairly tight, so we should see a break not long after the open. As always we wait for the market to tell us which way it wants to go.
Friday 23rd May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I didn't do much today. We kept within yesterday's limits, and I only made 2 failed shorts. Maybe too conservative. I will review the week over the weekend from a distance to see if I am trading safe, or trading scared. 1. We opened by breaking out of our overnight range and moving up to test yesterday's highs at 60, where the price turned very quickly. 2. The price is overlapping a lot and doesn't suit the relatively tight stops that I need to make this work. No entries so far on the retracements. 3. We broke out of the bottom of the overnight range, and I was waiting for a short after the retracement. This was a dog that didn't want to leave its kennel. 4. Another test of 60, and another hold. This time we didn't reverse, but moved sideways. After we moved through the demand line I put a short on which initially loked like it was moving, but stopped out soon after. 5. Another short from a retracement that failed quickly. After this we hung around below the highs for the rest of the time with no great trades available.
Having reviewed the last week, and the posts by others I can see that to get this to the next level, I need to strike a balance between respecting the continuous nature of price, to allow for better entries on smaller timeframes, and to avoid overtrading by limiting the trades to the areas with higher probability of sucess, such as the areas identified in the market preview, and also whatever new highs, lows, congestion etc. that are determined by price in real time. Good luck to all you traders this week.