Another recession is guaranteed

There has never been a time when the PFI went below -20 without a recession. We are not at -30.7! Double dip is just arround the corner.

 

This indicator seems to lag a bit.

 

Seems to depend on the recession, sometimes it bottoms toward the end, sometimes right at the beginning... still very reliable!

 

We're all ready in one (as if we ever left).

 

What I take away from the chart is that it doesn't predict the beginning of a recession. Rather it predicts the end of a recession or near the end of recession.

Recessions have begun when the PFI was above 0.

When the PFI reads -30 or -40, it signals the end or near the end of a recession.

 

A plunge in the PFI predicts the recession. Not necessary the facr that it's negative.

 

*now