I know I'm the kumbaya guy. But I just now see that NBC/WSJ poll shows that 53% think things will be better in 5 years, and only 19% think things will be worse. I know wishful thinking can solve everything, but positive attitudes can sure do better than all this negativity. c
Of course they think things will be better in 5 years, I'm one of them. They know that - worst case scenario - if Obama is re-elected, it will be over in a maximum of 4!
Poorly organized thoughts before I head to my office. To be honest, I'm a lot more pessimistic than I let on. I act optimistic here because I do not want a supply sider (SS) to be elected, and I'm fairly certain that it will be a SS up against Obama. So if the economy appears to be improving, that's good for Obama, who is at this time the only likely non-SS candidate we'll see this year. Remains to be seen, since Romney does appear to know when and how to raise taxes when necessary (and when and where to cut spending, to be fair). But, back to my pessimism... Last year's grain harvest and world stockpile data. Boomers over 50 piling on personal debt faster than their incomes, and at a time when they should not be doing that. (Relates to your new post on GDP and channel stuffing, Tsing.) A scary winter in Canada, way too warm out here in grain country, six straight months above average. El Nino and the jet stream in a different configuration. Is 2012 the year of widespread poor harvests? The vacuuming of the world's oceans right down to the sea floor. Good morning, all. : )
Natural business cycle mainly. Businesses are flush with cash right now too and running incredibly lean and efficient. In terms of the market, anyone who bets against the market this year is gonna be in for some heartache.