wow, this topic has brought a quite a few replies which is probably good therapy haha. i would also like to add, a couple of posts have mentioned waiting and waiting for the right opportunity to pull the trigger and buy the bottom or sell the top and seems to be agreement on this across the board which is all well and good. i have posted this topic in the options forum, therefore, we can take this in terms of volatility and price as well. with that in mind, where was the bottom/top in the past 2 months and did you hit it right with a position trade or did you find your bottom or was the top made in august and you are still holding puts? was this morning another top. i guess what i am saying is that you cannot say that you can catch a top or bottom in that manner and be consistent either. sorry to say this and i'm not being a wise guy but this is just as risky, no?
Anyone who says these are easy markets to trade (particularly options) is dillusional or inexperienced and will likely fail at a later date. Sure, if you are a total gambler in the strictest sense of that concept and just hit the button for buy or sell etc. on whim or emotionally with little to no idea or plan, then in the ST you might make some $$. So far as bottom or top, I don't think that is the concept being submitted above; rather wait for extreme levels. Of course as you note when does an (and what is ) "extreme level" of oversold or overbought happen or mean. Does it mean more trend in that direction or imminent change of trend?! . When I took classes at CME I learned that if you trade against a trend before there is a key reversal day and later 'confirmation' of said potential 'reversal' you are simply taking a "shot" with a chance. These markets are hard to trade IMHO, other than for plungers who might do well for a month or three, and then lose it all later by reason of becoming complacent with the easy money "earned." I expect some long term traders and veterans feel that way. I am not saying you cannot make money with this volatility; but trading options to do so in this environment is 2xs or 3xs, as hard. ST swings make no sense. I can't even hold a position for a week without risking getting shaken out or perhaps being tempted to take a profit that I had no intention to do so when I employed the option strategy 5 days earlier. I just wonder if anyone else (i.e. discretionary position traders or swing trader) is somewhat frustrated, or see these markets as great opportunities.
"I just wonder if anyone else (i.e. discretionary position traders or swing trader) is somewhat frustrated, or see these markets as great opportunities." My vote as a discretionary position trader (as my personal natural bent) and day trader (as my stretch target) is that I see these markets as great opportunities. I am using my time to improve my psychology and my daytrading skills on small positions. I am very close to "getting it". I move to option trading when markets get volatile but don't trade very frequently.
1. Why you did not go for the low hanging fruit that are less juicy but still nutritious even if the prob of getting ill exists, but is lower than the chance of winning the lottery? 2. My sympathies for your losses, but what did you get in return for the tuition you paid other than "I quit"? 3. Others may be banking, because others are losing. 4. One needs intellectual assets (which are necessarily, even if not certain to be sufficient) to make it.
This is a plungers market... must have become that way since 2006 when I last traded. Like the OP I got tired of it; returned to my day job where I actually could make 6-figures, and maybe even sleep better. lol. I came in a couple-three months ago and decided to trade some volatile crap... like OIH and SINA and AAPL, et. al. I get a stiff neck every day, lately. Decided to plunge into some deep OIH calls and sell the SINA puts which are "on sale" (whatever that means with this wild stock) ... since I see an unresolved gap on OIH many points higher, and I see now reason for SINA being butchered like this from the open other than too much MSG in their egg rolls. I just "know" OIH gap will fill (or it will trade up to it).... probably when it will inflict the most 'pain' on those who impatiently entered into long puts or shorts or sold calls too soon. Also entered some TLT at 18.60. Voila... good guess. I am happy being lucky than smart. Also decided to tone it down a little by starting to trade my old favorite.. ESRX. Hoping to replace OIH with ESRX and the like; SNDK also one I am watching. Years ago I wanted to be smart first and make money second. In fact that is not just a platitude. I really think knowing too much leads to out-thinking oneself. I think POGO said: "I/we have met the enemy and it is I/us" Anyway, sure enough I made more than all last week... in 3 hours; carrying some OIH calls overnight; but with insane vola... may take a hit, or as I suspect.. OIH will gap open higher, tomorrow. Of course I sold OIH calls at higher strikes... so that guarantees it going higher just to show me that I legged into my short side too soon. It works every time. My neck hasn't been this stiff since 1999- 2001! Watching every tick and constantly re-setting price alerts.
Yes, trading on opportunity sure beats trading out of necessity. I put on small positions while waiting. I miss the days when you can actually get some interest parking cash in T-Bills because there you can readily liquidate to get the cash back when the right time to trade comes. Thanks.
From personal experience, I see it as both frustrating and great opportunities. The problem I have found is when you ALSO daytrade and watch the charts each day, you fall prey to the daily volatility which tends to affect your judgement and psychology. Then, instead of holding for your original target on your discretionary swing/position trade, you close the position too early and either take a loss or take much lower gains than you first anticipated.
I totally agree. That's why I have my account broken up in sub-groups/accounts. If they were all together in one I couldn't keep them separate.
No one knows where the tops and bottoms are. Anyone who claims to know that is welcome to post it here the night before If the DJIA drops 1,000 pts or if a stock you'd like to buy drops 8 pts, the most you can know is that you're that much closer to the bottom. For a DCA-er, that's fine but for traders, it's the move that's relevant not the current location.