Given the sell off over the last week I wondered what happens after 5 consecutive days where the close is less than the open on the ES. So, I wrote a Tradestation strategy to test this. The results are interesting. Buy after 5 consecutive days down and hold for anywhere for 1 day to about 3 weeks and the aggregate result is a loss over the last 10 years. But, after that time, the results start to go positive in both dollars and % wins. The % win goes from below 40% to as high as 80% with the sweet spot being somewhere between holding for 60-90 trading days (3-4 months). A screen shot with the results here is here: http://screencast.com/t/hkCkMlPwca. This is a large image so you will have to click on it twice to open it and blow it up so that it's readable (at least this is the way it would work in internet explorer). What this tells me is that we're most likely close to, but not quite at the lows yet - patience, patience, patience. Over the next three weeks we are going to go lower. BUT, for a buy and hold investor (or for an IRA), the next three weeks could be a buying opportunity to sit on this stuff for 60-90 days. The full Tradestation code for you to play with and a pre-configured workspace is located here: https://www.structuredmarketseducation.com/Default.aspx?TabId=138 Scroll down to the middle of the page to the Strategy section. (Note: Free registration required to get to the files.). Here are screen shots of the performance report and annual returns when buying and holding for 60 trading days. http://screencast.com/t/EuAL3sV8Pjej http://screencast.com/t/mh9gUlLZSu Note that the sample size is SMALL - only one or two trades a year and a couple of those years were negative. Hope some of you find this useful.