Sure they're allowed to post. But it's no surprise that threads are in the state they are when moderators make the same sort of posts as those they're supposedly responsible for deleting. If this was your point, why not make it in your original post instead of just shooting from the hip for the sake of being cute?
I think some of you may not fully understand MM's methodology. He is not investing. He is not really picking stocks on fundamentals. He is trying to capitalize on a final push in a stock that has not only shown a lot of strength but has shown a really tight pattern. These are the stocks that trace what looks like a 45 degree line across the chart. That shows a couple of things, no big sellers and sponsorship. Someone is in there buying everytime the market stalls. Why? Maybe funds just love it, or maybe the CEO is trying to hit an options trigger or maybe they're fattening the thing up for a secondary, who knows? Of course, at some point the game's over, which is why he's out with his 15% and not trying to book a LT gain.
The journal also shows some other aspects as did his web site. 1. Capitalization strategy. 2. Hold strategy. 3. Restart strategy. 4. No stop strategy. A couple of paragraphs on each of these would round out the methodology, especially for those who hav not seen each as they developed.
Okay guys.... let's have a more productive afternoon session. I'm going to take db's suggestion and clear out the recent "conversation". No offense intended... just tidying up a bit.
You have gone over those points previously. I think it is possible for a trader to recognize there is some value in his selection methodology and apply their own money managment strategy.
Very nice analysis although it does look like it's a little overextended . But then again, I have seen many overbought stocks get even more overbought. Good luck... Nick
I agree. Mr. Market's selection methodology looks like it has some value. Just apply your own stops and you might have a nice long term swing trading strat.
I thought Mr. Market had been kicked. Imagine my surprise at seeing his name again. This joke is getting really tired fella. "I am huge?????" Please!!!! Self praise is always suspect. Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back. Or shaving it for that matter. :eek: :eek:
OK. What I did was put your trades in chronological order, best I could deem, so I could get a picture of how you parlay a hypothetical investment of $10,000. Everytime one of these $10,000 investments parlayed through the trades until and if it turned into something you were holding as of 11/10/03, I started a new investment thread of $10,000. It would be best of course to know the actual order of the starting capitals and how they were reinvested. So this is just speculation; it is assuming you reinvested the capital at every turn, and that your sequence of trades is as I depicted. The results aren't bad, but not great either. Turns out you average 12.61% per trade, not 15%, in about 113 days (which is 16 weeks) on average, not 4 to 6 weeks. It also turns out that because you hold losses instead of freeing up the cash to invest in the immediate next 'mr.market pick', you have to come up with more funds from somewhere to add to your capital. I counted at least 14 such injections of monies. Your average holding period on a loss is 152 days, yet your average holding period for a winner is 104 days. So remaining unknown is the cost of lost opportunities, the cost of deploying additional funding to new investments and the realization of principal saved by limiting losses. Just to offer an idea of what this means in so far as cost to you, if you're a month into a trade and losing 11%, and 19 months into another trade and losing 23%, and during those terms new opportunities arise, you now need to acquire more capital for the new stocks or forgo them, but if you cut the losses of your worst performers you would free up and could use that capital, and still be able to acquire additional capital for even more opportunities. Maybe there are three holdings currently you'd free up by so doing. Then, instead of holding for 113 days average, your average "hold-to-riches" period would also shorten up a bit, especially given the average holding time you seem to have to go through for losing positions as it takes you longer to have a loss become a winner, and as a consequence of that you may be able to compound the gains faster.
Nice commentary. At the persent time with all the injections you noted (14 or so), mr market did his restart with these 15 strams still in tact. Lets say he wants to turn over his portfolio as he now construes it to make 15% on the portfolio. Every 4 to 6 weeks he simply needs 15 new picks to make 15% for each turn of the portfolio. 15 picks every 25 days from this point onward. So far he has done about 80 picks in three years. We all look forward to how he extracts himself from this dilemma. So far it has been by doing a restart when the problem gets toclose for comfort. We are now into the classic condition of seeing an approach go through a shut down yet once again. He needs to drop in at least every other day with a pick to keep his ball and his game rolling. And of course he needs to have a zero tolerance from here on in for picking any failures whatsoever. I almost feel like slipping a pick in every other day that works just for laughs.