He's holding it until it goes up 15%. 4-6 weeks or 4-6 years. He'd rather hold it down to 0 than break his streak and damage his ego.
I certainly agree with this post. Large home builders are really LAND DEVELOPERS. They buy tracts of land and sub-divide and are able to sell these finished lots at a profit by building a home on them. They historically really don't make much of anything on the home, although in recent years they discovered they can make some margin selling granite, stonework, landscaping, insurance, and what ever else they can whore as upgrades to the basic "box". The point is, building the home is just the way to sell the lot. With the real estate market having gone well of late, builders are very low on having finished lots ready to build with. The process of buying large tracts of land, getting the necessary permits, grading, etc takes years. A very long pipeline. Many large builders have taken the plunge and are buying ALREADY finished lots at retail from other developers AT RETAIL to keep there stock price propped up. MR Market is entering this game late in the 9th inning. Home builders would have been a good trade a few years ago. But as usual, Mr Expert is touting this as the second coming. Real estate cycles come and go. They always take two steps forward and one back. When real estate undergoes cyclical retreats, as it always does, many builders go under or are aquired by other companies. Many investors do not realize how few surviving home builders there were after the collapse of the real estate market in 1990. Many of the "names" live on as though nothing happened. Two examples: Kaufman & Broad filed a Chapter 11 bankruptcy wiping out their shareholders. William Lyon, CEO of William Lyon Homes, the largest owner of developable land in Southern California, was worth $6 billion in 1989. He was last on the Forbes 500 list in 1991 with $500 million. His company, failed in the down-turn and Sheriff's Marshalls seized his cars, artwork, and jewelry. The bankruptcy court took all of his real estate holdings, but allowed him to keep his home. In 1997 he was hired as the CEO of Presley Companies when his tiny, newly created private company, William Lyon Homes, was "merged" with the Presley Companies. The slim percentage of the company owned by William Lyon was slightly augmented by by stock options. The company changed their name to William Lyon Homes and trades on the NYSE under the ticker of WLS - as if William Lyon Homes had not vanished in the downturn. These stocks are good for a trade like any other POS stock, but beware of "investors" who buy on "fundementals" with no stop loss like Mr Market.
You guys continue to bash my strategy, please give me your assessment of my last 53 trades, 47 of which have been WINNERS!!
"I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 46.42." It's getting more and more difficult to distinguish between the moderators and the moderated these days.
I suggested HOV to big boy when it was 40 having risen from 10 in half a year. It bought summit in Ohio a little while ago. Funny thing is, housing construction is a two level cyclic. The long cycle is sort of economic and the short cycle is seasonal. great idea to buy a stock to hold for 4 to 6 weeks going into the fall and winter months. LOL. 138% increase is peanuts compared to over 800%. LOL. He couldn't figure out the value at 40 bucks now its 85. LOL