Another GLD Autumn Rally?

GLD has now broken out of resistance. Should reach 165 within a week.

 

I like that kind of talk.
Gotta Love the Love Trade!


http://seekingalpha.com/article/361591-gold-seasonality-can-we-profit-from-it

 

vol rised a little .. gold broke out of the triangle.. aapl on a peaky kind of trading behavior.. things might be changing a little..

 

Everyone's starting to assume the "melt-up" is going to happen, so of course Mr. Market will probably stick it to us with a pullback!
We're certainly due, after watching SPY go up since early June, all the way to a new 4 year high.
AAPL was getting parabolic, so coming back in a bit would be OK there too.


GLD touched the high of the triangle at 159.20 today, but it would be nice to see it close above 160 soon. That might bring in a new wave of buyers.
Got into "poor man's gold" today as well, GLD's insane cousin, SLV!
It went up an even more convincing 4.19% over the last 2 days (versus 1.35% for GLD), solidly breaking out of its recent channel.

 

how corrolated is GLD and SLV on a quick glance i couldn't tell the difference.

 

Long term they're pretty much joined at the hip.
But short term SLV is a lot more quirky and erratic.
:eek:
Here's a good article about SLV vs. GLD by my fav precious metals guru, Adam Hamilton:
http://www.zealllc.com/2012/silvund.htm

 

Since I see it moving yesterday I opened the following spread instead of trying the suggested butterfly strategy:


GLD SEP12
Sold 1 Put of $159 for 2.71
Bought 1 Put of $158 for 2.23
Gross credit received + 0.48

Max Reward: Credit received minus commissions
Max Risk: - 0.52 + commissions
BE: $158.52
*

Objective: If GLD continues rising and goes/stays above $159 will receive the reward.

Comments always welcome.

 

Gold/Silver Ratio varies with time having gone approx. between 44 and 59 in the last 12 months.

Usually if Silver starts behind with a high Gold/Silver ratio, when Gold takes off eventually Silver follows and eventually outperforms Gold in that the ratio narrows a lot.

BUT, and this is the great but, on corrections Silver has BIG falls compared to Gold. That's why they say it's a very high volatility market, Silver that is.

 

Very organized approach, and a great 1 month return (around 87%) if GLD closes at 159 or above on September 21st.
What's your risk control method?
When will you bail if GLD goes down?
Or will you hold all the way to Expiration Friday?

 

Great timing. Twelve minutes after I posted this the QE3 News came out, and GLD shot up like a rocket!