Another GLD Autumn Rally?

Discussion in 'Options' started by cactiman, Aug 11, 2012.

  1. Anyone buying GLD Calls and/or selling Bull Put Spreads in preparation for another Autumn Rally?
    GLD has had a nice consolidation since May, between 150-160.
    I've also read Open Interest in the Futures Market was at an extremely low level in July - normally a contrarian indicator.
    On the attached chart I've marked the 2009, 2010, & 2011 Summer Lows, right before their Autumn Rallies began.
  2. i'd think it was all about if the money is gonna keep getting printed.. which if you ask me i think its gonna be hard to knock obama out of office.. so the printing press will continue.. if you ask me it looks like a consolidating asymmetrical triangle.. you could look for volume confirmation on a break out.. or use a breakout strategy with options..
  3. Good points.
    I sold a few Jan GLD 150/149 Bull Put Spreads back in June, figuring the 150 level would hold. So far, so good.
    I don't buy Single Options much any more, but am considering some GLD January Calls if GLD breaks out above 160.
  4. Back spread around a breakout resistance
  5. Had another look at the attached GLD chart, and for the last 3 years there's not only been Autumn rallies into December, but also Winter rallies into March.
    Based on those seasonal patterns, plus the dollar's current high level and the good chance of more money printing coming soon, I decided not to wait for a breakout above 160.
    Started a long single option position today with a GLD March 175 Call.
    Now we'll "wait and see" about that Breakout, for some confirmation.
  6. Cereal


    But wasn't last December when GLD hit its low in the last 12 months?
    Just reminding.
  7. Cereal


    I've looked, as an example at:

    Sell 1 GLD Dec12 $159 P for $5.10
    Buy 2 GLD Dec12 $164 P for $3.65 each
    Ttl debit for trade: -$2.2

    Ok ok erased rest of my msg here as my calculations were screwed obviously.
    Max risk can be indeed around $730 if GLD closes just below $164.
  8. Cereal


    Any opinions on this Credit Put Spread?

    Sell 1 Dec12 GLD P of $148
    Buy 1 Dec12 GLD P of $144
    Credit Received: 1
    Max Profit: $100
    Max Risk: $300
    BE: $147.30
    My platform says 71.40% chances to profit.
  9. my thoughts on ratios are that if you have to be careful closing in on opex ... if the underlying has a higher probability of closing between the strikes or near the bought strike.. just close it down... this is a trade your wanting a blow by the two strikes.. it helps neutralize your theta .. and as everyone says.. try to get a credit.. you don't have to 1 x2 it.. you can 2x3 it or whatever you need to.. to get the risk reward.. or credit if you want it..
  10. i used to credit spread a ton... now i consider butteflys in their place .. risk reward.. etc.. you can get out alot of times in profit even though the underlying has started to move again.. credit spreads as volatility grows and the underlying starts moving against you are expensive to by back.. at least thats my speculation right now.. put a probability distro up based upon past realized volatility.. put the wings of the butterfly out 1 standard deviation.. sell the at the moneys and hold till you have profit and sell.. don't try to milk the thing for max profit..
    #10     Aug 14, 2012