Am curious to everyone's idea of what will actually happen when the financials report tommorow and FOMC comes out with their statement. Lots of bear threads, and I am getting bearish myself. Is this the ultimate indicator that the bears won't have enough ammo when they see price action that isn't 'weak' to the news ?? sure the panic sell on Aug 15 to 1370 might demand a retest, but if it was done on the back of an out of control deleveraging, than do sellers really have enough ammo here? disclosure of my position: i've been accumulating ICE, CME calls into a 10 day straight liquidation, bought a LEH +60/-55 long put spread today ahead of earnings today, own a remnant 195 GS call and some MS calls from the month (have already scaled out of most), bought some BIDU, WYNN, LVS puts today. Bought FXI puts on Friday. Am long the carry trade currencies (nzd, aud), short the jpy, short bonds thru zb puts [which is actually bullish the markets - or at least betting yields are too low]. So essentially I'm straddling the fence here.
My lehman put spread failed. I am getting bulled up today. We're going to close at 1520. Lehman = more important than FOMC. we are not in an earnings recession.