And this whole time I thought the yield curve was showing a recession.

It all makes sense now.....hahahahaha. And this whole time I thought this economy was headed towards a recession!!!!


"Their buying is what makes the yield curve "different this time," and not predictive of a recession, argue the authors of that report and many Wall Street economists."

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"The Asians stepped back in," says Marta, noting Treasury traders were reporting Asian central bank bids throughout the night. "They were notably absent from the game and they came back in" when the 10-year's yield reached 4.8% last week. Given recent ranges for the 10-year between 4.5% and 4.75%, that makes 4.8% a decent entry point, he says, adding that without inflation pressures, he still forecasts one rate cut before the year is out.

The impact of foreign buying on yields is a much-debated subject on Wall Street, as many believe these investors have depressed the long end of the yield curve. Without foreign investors, yields would be 150 basis points higher or 1.5% higher, according to a 2005 Fed study. Their buying is what makes the yield curve "different this time," and not predictive of a recession, argue the authors of that report and many Wall Street economists.

 

On the same subject. Inversion, recession and stock market:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6711.htm

 

So what are the chances of the fed hiking the rates?

 

im going with a 10-15% chance at the end of Jan, one thing for sure is they are not cutting them anytime soon.


BOJ may be raising their rates on Thurs, if they do look out, could easily see a 2-3% drop in those markets, however a few articles I have been reading today suggest they will keep them where there at.

 

If you listen to what FED is telling chances are negative that means they are thinking about hiking unless they are bluffing. So far stock and bond market thinks they are. Depends who folds first.

 

still got plenty of time to change their minds...but I bet even leaking hints of it now won't drastically slow things down the way they are going...

 

this might sound naive but

yield curve takes a while to show

meaning we will see what crap we are in but later