Well, that was a crummy end to the year. Continuing from trade #49 My mental stops kicked in during the bear downturn, because I had visions of 2022 dancing in my head. I'm glad I got out when I did, in mid-August for the MNQ and late September for the MES, because October was absolutely brutal as we all know. The SP fell another 200+ points from my exits, but I think the naz fell only a bit further from that exit of 14.9Kish a week earlier. In the interim between the naz and SP exits I tried a little day trading with fixed targets and stops near the end of August, but I could not get the timings of the chop quite right, and proceeded to lose ~$550 that day. Decided to not die by 1,000 cuts, so just let those SP trades fester, and after a month of slow drip, pulled the plug. Ug. After watching the bull reassert itself in earnest in November, I dribbled in for a few swings in December with those same fixed targets (of ~10 points on the SP). I was feeling particularly gleeful about either trade 67, 68 or 69 (can't remember which one it was), because I managed to get out 1 tick below the top tick of the day. I am still not convinced that the Fed is done, so I have a tentative swing in place. And while we seem overbought again (I hate the idea of couching a market as overbought/sold, it seems so parochial), there is at least a feeling of muted optimism at the end of this year after Powell's machinations over the last two meetings. Around the time of the ES exits I decided to get into gig delivery work, to get the fuck out of the house and get some exercise, and am enjoying that now full-time. It's almost more fun watching the trades from afar on the iPhone's stock app rather than staring at it on the trading screens. Can feel a bit more aloof about it all, more detached, and thus more relaxed. Thus, I muse. Open for now...
ETA: In re-reading that paragraph about the Fed thing, I realize I didn't articulate myself enough. When I mention the muted optimism, I meant my own as well. This stems in great part from the absolute bat-shit crazy prediction I have read about how the Fed is going to start cutting interest rates next year, and how many they are "pricing in" for 2024 alone. Are you seriously kidding me? The Fed is just going to about-face and start going Edward Scissorhands on rates like we're in a free-fall recession, in three months?!? God help the medium-term bulls if inflation and employment numbers are not goldilocks through H1 2024, and the FOMC reiterates higher-for-longer, or worse comes to worst, squeezes in one more hike.
Continuing from trade #69... Just held it through the nonsense of the 2-year double-top that was finally broken today, albeit just barely. An entire calendar month to get 20ish points. This is the problem with buying at the peak. But I know that is the folly I may face when doing so. It has made me rethink this whole swinging *with a target*... If I did not have that ~4893 target in place (it was a GTC exit order placed weeks ago), I could have been sitting at another 35ish points in profit as of the close, and gotten that extra profit this coming Sunday evening. But I digress. (FYI, the time stamp on the exit is FUBAR, because I did not load up NT until that time. And NT7's journal system cannot reckon' a timestamp when it is not running during a trade execution. Based on what I see on the March chart, the trade closed around 12:30 PM ET today.) Flat for the weekend. Methinks this time I'ma wait for the next dip.
Yah, I thought to play the same trick the other day on a gold stock, gambling on the fact I was buying the bottom of the dip on gold price here at the arrow......
Ug, mouse, you KNOW that a commodity stock/index is not the same thing as an equity index. It does not move the same over a long time-frame. Gold dips are in no way connected to equity dips. Take that shit back to the "Which Way" threads! Begone!
Just finished the journal start to finish. You are one of the real ones on here there is no doubt about that. thanks for the honest persistence/perseverance.
Good journal Overnight and Impressive Stat. I am always looking for way to improve my expectancy. From the pieces of your stat, I see that you have unreasonably high Profit Factor and winrate. In my experience the two tend to have inverse correlation where if you shoot for higher target, your trade become loser more often. I tried transition into a swing trader risking the same and targeting more, but my winrate drop dramatically I just wonder how you maintain high PF and winrate at the same time, or is it just occasional occurrence from time to time.