Looking back earlier on this thread, you used to sometimes trade NQ from the short side. Im wondering if you don't want to short the market these days, then why you don't just stay neutral during this bear market?
Because if you look closely through the posts, and short-term drops, I thought the market would always bounce. That is why they were quick scalps. But they were in a bull market. This is the first time I have been in a prolonged bear market in equities, and have not experienced it before. I did not know how to recognize a prolonged bear, and now I do. It is all about inflation and the Fed and geopolitics. When we had the possibility of Fed pivot in August, I went long. But after seeing how inflation is impacting the Fed and it's hike decisions after that entry, I knew I could not dial-in another scale-in on a long until inflation numbers started to recede. That is why I did not get sucked into that BS bull action early last week. Had to sit on hands. The bottom line is, I know I am going to take a hit on this trade as well, because unless CPI comes in super soft, and Meeting minutes are dovish along with the Fed speak and Q3 earnings are stronger than expected, the NQ cannot recover back to my entry by mid-December. When to add on an entry in the March 2023 contract will all depend on how we get through that plus the elections.
FWIW: This guy does a deeper dive into market analysis than most. Maybe there is something in his weekly videos that might give you a feel for when to make your next move. https://www.youtube.com/c/MottCapitalManagementLLC
I went back a few pages and actually read your journal. Am i understanding this right: You had an 80 point target on this intra day scalp trade around the last fed minutes release. It never hit your 80 pt target, but you are you still in it with 2500 point loss six weeks later? I admire your honesty in this journal. I guess most people trade this way. I used to as well in my early days. I used to let my losses run. Now i have stop loss on every single trade, i set the stop loss value on the opening order ticket. If i don't do this there is always the risk of letting losers run and run.. Letting losers run and run is a nasty psychological trap that is so easy to fall into and hard to get out of once trapped in. You can end up giving back profits from a 100 profitable trades with just one loss that is allowed to run out of control.
Yes, you are correct. As I mentioned, this year is the first year that "letting a loser run" for an entire contract has not paid out. 2022 is turning out to be a bugger! The reason I fell into this mindset is because if you go back further, into years like 2018 and 2020, you will see where I have cut losses at the bottom, only to see them recover shortly thereafter. This year it has been different. Right now, I'd have been rich if I did not cut my losses at the bottom, WHEN I STILL HAD MANY MANY WEEKS LEFT OF THE SWING TRADE! But that overnight margin is always hanging over my head. So this year was especially painful when I felt I was going to survive the swing, but saw the ON margin coming for me, so had to bail. I was overlevered to a point I did not think would ever occur. So here I am again, into a deeper drop. Fucking bear markets! This time I am truly doing a buy-hold-roll.
He just said a few posts above that he has never experienced a bear market before so i reckon that would put him below 40.