...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Overnight, Feb 14, 2017.

  1. ondafringe

    ondafringe

    That's his mantra: Buy... Hold... Roll... with no Stop.

    IMO, there's nothing wrong with that strategy, but he can't seem to shake the habit of buying at/near tops. Again, IMO, if he's going to do that, he should wait for a sell-off, and buy at/near where his chart reading indicates a possible bottom, like just before the close this past Friday.
     
    #491     Feb 13, 2022
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  2. ondafringe

    ondafringe

    I'm not an options guy, just trying to wrap my head around this.

    He is Long the June MES at 4665. If his target was 200 points, and if I understand your example, he would also be short the MES 4865 EOM Calls w/June expiry.

    Maybe I'm missing it, but where is his downside protection with that strategy, which, I think, is what he would be most interested in?

    If he was willing to self-insure a 50 point drop, but wanted downside protection for anything greater, seems it would have been better to just buy MES 4615 QTY Puts w/June expiry. Not sure what they would have cost back then, but IV would have been low(er), so maybe $75 or so per contract?

    Right now, he is down 255 points. Since (I think) quarterly options are American, near EOD Friday, he could have exercised his Puts which would close his MES position with a 50 point loss per contract, and then reenter Long MES at/near 4410.

    Am I even close on any of that? lol
     
    #492     Feb 13, 2022
  3. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks


    He SOLD calls. He received premium (ie income) for the sale. The income offsets the cost basis of the futures position. There is no protection (in that scenario) beyond the income received.
     
    #493     Feb 13, 2022
    ondafringe likes this.
  4. ondafringe

    ondafringe

    Right, that's what I thought.
     
    #494     Feb 13, 2022
  5. The other poster said it. It's just getting paid a little more while waiting. If you want downside protection then you buy a put with the proceeds of the call, which is a collar I think.
     
    #495     Feb 13, 2022
    oraclewizard77 and ondafringe like this.
  6. Overnight

    Overnight

    No trades. Just another "good grief" week. I may have to actually start day trading again, because these positions are going nowhere as we are locked in a broad range way below entry.

    Openpositions02182022.JPG
     
    #496     Feb 18, 2022
    oraclewizard77 and easymon1 like this.
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    Continuing from trade #34...

    02252022tradedetail.jpg

    Wow. Just wow. One whole trade for peanuts. But I have always had this problem in extreme ranging periods. I just cannot see proper entries and exits. The sim trading went well enough, but could not engage in much live trading because of the open positions and that risk exposure.

    Should have seen the open positions on Thursday morning pre-market. It was UGLY. And I know it is not over. so cannot enter long as I sense this is just a dead-cat. I mean, who would have thought of this 2-day rally yesterday morning? I've never traded through a European war before, so do not know what to expect. Plus the unknown of the Ukraine capital possibly falling plus upcoming 2-day Powell speak and NFP next week? Yikes!

    Ain't out of the woods yet, so DISCIPLINE! Sit on hands, and follow the plan!

    Openpositions02252022.JPG
     
    #497     Feb 25, 2022
  8. tango29

    tango29

    I was thinking about your positions this week. I was curious if you might try an add when we got creamed, and then take one off on a rally.
     
    #498     Feb 25, 2022
    Overnight and nooby_mcnoob like this.
  9. Overnight

    Overnight

    Nope, no adds. We are too close to March expiry, so any adds would have to be done on Sep contract, which would be dangerous on it's nil volume. Too much uncertainty around the March contract expiration which is right around rate-hike time.
     
    #499     Feb 25, 2022
    vanzandt likes this.
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    Haven't been updating, because it's just been a churn fest for 3 weeks. Hell, the shit was down for ~23K at one point over this period, but it's getting better (?).

    Openpositions03182022.JPG

    Yeah, it's getting better all right. Follow the plan while getting gut-punched. Some plan.



    And we had another performance bond increase starting tonight on the equity indices, so that leaves less wiggle room. Need this war to end.
     
    #500     Mar 18, 2022
    tango29 and Laissez Faire like this.