I am guilty of jumping into the thread without reading 46 pages. Sorry. You are indeed an ET celebrity and deserve respect both for your posting skills and your experience as a trader. With all the required humbling preamble out of the way I respectfully suggest use of Occam's Razor and KISS both I am sure may be trite to you but applicable. Fibonacci, when applied correctly offers the answers to the trade method of predicting Duration of Trade and the risk to accept for the intended profit. As to hedging futures without option contracts -- consider trading correlated futures markets to trade both long and short the underlying without need for options. Fib pattern recognition and trading cannot be done on renko or tick charts -- since when properly used both Time and Price are measured by Fibonacci. I can demonstrate by posting lots of content here and I am respectful to not "Muddy up" your excellent thread. If you wish to PM me or Skype then I can show you with shared screens with other ET'ers would love to comment on with no real value to anyone. I am Not Afraid of "Revealing my Edge' and am happy to share. I appreciate your kind Christmas wishes and hope that profits await you in 2022.
I messed with Fibs when I started in the WTI space almost 5 years ago, and while I found the patterns to be useful then, the change of instruments along with change of style has made them obsolete for me at this time. I think I posted a total of a whopping two charts with Fib on them over the years. Here's the first one. It happens to be in the very first post of the thread... (You'd have to read the post to get context. The holiday season is a great time to read the journal, as there's usually more free time to do so, heh.) The farthest I got in Fib was looking for that 50% retrace after a large swing. Thanks for the offer but I'ma just stick to bull-in-China-shop for now.
Haha, I remember that episode. The bull just wanders past all the shelves. But yeah, it's still a broad-based strategic thrust through bear territory, no matter how you slice it.
As I watch @Baron engage in silly with an ex-sponsor (which is highly entertaining by the way), I will post my final update for the year. Considering the date, the market action and my current outlook on FA/PA, I'm done for 2021. I just need a break. So continuing from trade #25... And there is it. That MNQ thorn in my side I finally closed out after a month+. Geez. And I took a nice flier on the MES on the "Santa Rally". Happy New Year's y'all. Loons! I don't know why. Just roll with it man.
A lackluster week. Continuing from trade #28... I recall feeling really good about that MYM trade, because it exited close to the daily high. (In fact it WAS the daily high for a couple of hours, but poked 20 ticks higher afterwards at some point.) Can be tricky to do on something as thinly traded as the DOW on forward months. But then came the minutes. *SLAM* Well, I entered the MNQ after what I though was a decent drop on Tuesday, but then the FOMC caught everyone unawares at 2PM on Wednesday. Buggers! So that's where I'm at. The MES position poked into 10 points of profit on Thursday, but I wanted 22. Missed! So now I'm looking for a lot more than 20, since it teased me a couple of times. F that thing! hehe. Onward...
No trades this week. But am miffed at myself on the MES position... So on pre-open Wednesday, the position was 40 points into profit from the 4688 level. My gut kept telling me to just get out with 40, as that was the overnight high. But I was greedy, and wanted 50 points. And so after the open, of course it couldn't poke up those extra 10 points. Thursday pre-open was similar. Right up to open it was on uptrend. But there the 40 point profit would have been a few points short. So Thursday evening I averaged in 2 more to bring down the entry price but alas, no joy today. I am thinking the shortened day Monday may bring relief. And the MNQ? HAH! Thanx a lot "another 400-point down day" on Thursday, you bugger! Forward...
What a difference a week makes! Wheee! Didn't see any long opportunities for swings, but there were obviously plenty for daytrades. Didn't take any, as my confidence is a bit "shaken", because I did not anticipate this madness of selling into what is already known about the Fed's plans. Who is the cocksucker who started this rumor about a 50-basis-point rate hike?
Ouch. Realized or still holding? You seem to be trading long only - often entering near tops. Sooner or later such a strategy will make you 'caught out'.